正體中文|English
在全球電動車產業歷經資源過度投入、商品化被過度期待的激情10年之後，Toyota在全球第二大單一市場 – 北美地區釋出訊息：將旗下Toyota、Lexus車款藉大改款時予以全面「混動化」(Hybrid或PHEV)，而不是「電動化」。
事實上，就技術演進、資源合理重新配置、以及最少社會成本完成產業轉型的綜合觀點來說，由內燃機車款、輕油電(48V)車款、油電混合、插電式油電混合、EREV增程式電動車，再過渡至BEV純電車款、清淨能源(氫能)車輛的汽車發展模式，對於全球(抗暖化)、主要經濟體(產業發展)、乃至於一般民眾(合理支出)的綜合效益最大。但即使Toyota持有的主要油電混合技術專利在2017年到期，許多汽車生產國選擇跳過油電混合技術發展的歷程，大量資源直接投入BEV純電車的發展：
(A)
歐盟：最大經濟體德國主導，政策性優惠BEV純電車、技術層次較低的輕油電車款，排擠(忽略)油電混合車款，藉以降低日本車廠的競爭優勢，並期待直接在BEV技術上取得產業領導地位。
(B)
美國，呈現兩極化發展：以加州領先主導的超低/淨零排放標準(2035年禁售燃油車)催生最成功電動車廠-Tesla的誕生；以德州為主的石化、汽車工業大州選擇規避承擔降低碳放量的責任，繼續擁抱內燃機汽車。
(C)
中國大陸：利用稀土金屬蘊藏量的超級寡占優勢，全力發展BEV純電車；同時也希望越過日本車廠的油電混合障礙(優勢)，藉BEV技術與生產優勢取得產業領導地位。
受限於電池在性能表現、生產成本、充放電使用安全的侷限，全球絕大部分的汽車製造商目前已經需要面對BEV純電車過早、未成熟鉅額投資投產的虧損。Toyota、BMW、Porsche
則是能夠遠離這一波BEV純電車經濟泡沫、且持續在低汙染低排放技術穩健投入的車廠。
關於汽車產業的良性發展路徑，本站在2010年有具體的描繪敘述，直到今年(2024年)還有些許參考價值，歡迎讀者察閱：
https://seztwnscope01.blogspot.com/2010/01/2010-dawning-for-automotive-industry.html
本篇新聞評論，新聞參考內容分別來自：
(1)
鉅亨網：燃油車掰了！傳豐田考慮全面發展油電混合車 放棄電動化 (2024-8-19)
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5688256
(2)
路透社：Hybrid cars throw
lifeline to platinum metals (2024-9-9)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/hybrid-cars-throw-lifeline-platinum-metals-2024-09-09
After a passionate decade in the global electric vehicle (EV)
industry, characterized by excessive resource investment and over-anticipated
commercialization, Toyota has sent a message to the world’s second-largest
single market—North America: it will fully "hybridize" (Hybrid or
PHEV) its Toyota and Lexus models during model changes, rather than focusing on
"electrification".
In fact, from the perspective of technological evolution, rational
resource reallocation, and achieving industrial transformation with the lowest
societal costs, the development model that transitions from internal combustion
engine (ICE) vehicles, mild hybrids (48V-spec), full hybrids, plug-in hybrids
(PHEV), and range-extended electric vehicles (EREV), eventually to battery
electric vehicles (BEV) and clean energy (hydrogen) vehicles, offers the
greatest synergy benefits for the world (in terms of combating global warming),
major economies (industrial development), and the general public (reasonable
expenditures). However, despite Toyota’s key hybrid technology patents expiring
in 2017, many automobile-producing countries chose to skip the hybrid
technology development process, directly investing substantial resources in BEV
development:
(A)
European Union: Led by the largest economy,
Germany, which provides policy incentives for BEVs and lower-level mild-hybrid
vehicles, while sidelining full hybrid models. This strategy aims to diminish
the competitive edge of Japanese automakers and seeks to establish BEV leadership.
(B)
United States: A polarized development. On one
hand, California's leadership in ultra-low/zero-emission standards (with a 2035
ban on fuel cars) has given rise to the most successful EV manufacturer, Tesla.
On the other hand, major fossil fuel and automotive states, such as Texas,
avoid the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions and continue embracing
internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE).
(C)
Mainland China: Capitalizing on its
super-monopoly in rare earth metals, it is fully committed to BEV development.
China also seeks to bypass the hybrid advantage of Japanese automakers and aims
to achieve industry leadership through BEV technology and production
advantages.
Due to limitations in battery performance, production costs, and
safety in charging and usage, most global automakers are now facing losses from
premature, overly ambitious investments in BEV production. Toyota, BMW, and
Porsche have managed to stay clear of this BEV economic bubble and continue
steady investments in low-emission, low-pollution technologies.
For insights into a healthy development path for the automotive
industry, our site provided a detailed description in 2010, which still holds
some reference value today (2024). Readers are welcome to check it out:
https://seztwnscope01.blogspot.com/2010/01/2010-dawning-for-automotive-industry.html
This news commentary is based on the following sources:
(1) ONUE: "Goodbye, gas-powered cars! Toyota
reportedly considering fully focusing on hybrid vehicles, abandoning
electrification" (2024-8-19)
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5688256
(2)
Reuters: "Hybrid cars throw lifeline to
platinum metals" (2024-9-9)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/hybrid-cars-throw-lifeline-platinum-metals-2024-09-09
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