(1)
Channel perspective: Electric scooters
are easier and cheaper to maintain than gas-powered ones, and when it comes to
electrical system failures, mechanics have limited repair options. This is
detrimental to traditional (gas-powered) motorcycle dealerships. Hence, large
traditional brands like Yamaha tend to promote gas-powered vehicles while
downplaying electric scooters, which is a practical reality. For electric
vehicles (including scooters) to succeed, a model needs to be developed where
manufacturers, sales, and maintenance services can all profit from the system,
prompting dealers to actively sell them. For example, opening up reasonable
modification options through government policies might be a solution.
(2)
Market perspective: Currently,
electric scooters are priced 50% higher than gas-powered ones and have limited
range, so the core market is focused on small, affordable models for short
trips, primarily targeted at female users. The EC-05, being a high-performance,
large-sized, and high-priced model, struggles to find traction in this electric
scooter market.
(3)
Marketing perspective: The
first-generation EC-05 was essentially the performance version of the Gogoro 2S
(7.6 kW, 10.3 ps), with a base price around NT$100,000, plus a store promotion
offering NT$10,000 worth of accessories. However, selling it with zero
advertising and no consumer engagement made it difficult to generate interest
in the EC-05. Instead, it inadvertently boosted sales of Gogoro models or the
eye-catching AEON models with distinct product features. Starting in April
2022, the EC-05 switched to the general version of the Gogoro 2’s 7.0 kW, 9.5
ps motor, with a price reduction of NT$9,000 to NT$11,000.
(4)
Product perspective: It's a bike
primarily for men (with a higher riding position). It looks strong and
imposing, but it's relatively expensive and not particularly fast, which hurts
word-of-mouth among consumers.
Test-ride sidetalk 2:
Why are KYMCO’s electric scooter sales as poor as the EC-05’s, despite being
the market leader?
(1)
Channel perspective: This is the
biggest challenge, and KYMCO faces the same issues as Yamaha Taiwan.
(2)
Short-term outlook: KYMCO, in order to
maintain its dominant position in the Taiwan market, insists on developing its
own power system (both battery swapping and charging). Naturally, in the early
stages of building a battery swap station network, it’s hard to compete with
the convenience of the Gogoro Network. The market's response has been one of
"thousands responding, but only one purchasing," which is an
inevitable phase.
(3)
Product development strategy: KYMCO
made several significant mistakes in its rush to differentiate its products and
avoid infringing on the advanced patents of Gogoro. Initially (in 2018), KYMCO
used heavy batteries to lead in range (unsuitable for women, and even men found
it a poor experience). After three years (by 2021), KYMCO had to revert to
using nearly the same battery modules as Gogoro, with the 21700 battery cell
and a 10 kg battery pack. Additionally, KYMCO adopted a vertical 90-degree
battery rack (compared to Gogoro’s 20-degree angle, which is more ergonomic),
and boldly introduced a two-speed transmission. Though this was a courageous
and worthy attempt, the industry later proved it was unnecessary for electric
scooters or even electric cars with up to 300 hp. Despite its failure, KYMCO
deserves applause for trying. Furthermore, KYMCO’s vehicles are 5-10 kg lighter
than its competitors in the same class (public data does not yet show the use
of technologies like aluminum parts, raising safety concerns). KYMCO must offer
better solutions to gradually build consumer interest and trust, encouraging
more confident purchases.
Guidelines for entering
the electric scooter market
Battery-swapping
electric scooters are stylish, fun to ride, eco-friendly (at least on the
surface), and easy to maintain. However, they are expensive (even with
subsidies), have limited range, and come with a burdensome monthly subscription
fee. So, when is the right time to invest in one? I believe the following
simple principles can help guide your decision:
(1)
You live within 1 km of a battery swap
station (the time and distance to the station is the most annoying cost).
(2)
You have stable daily usage needs
(letting it sit too long may cause malfunctions, and long-distance rides will
incur extra mileage fees, while inconsistent riding habits can lead to
frustration when you see the monthly subscription bill).
(3)
Your daily commute is under 40 km (if
you're constantly worried about needing a battery swap, a battery-swapping
electric scooter is not for you).
(4)
You live in the city (if your commute
is long and there are no swap stations nearby, sticking with a gas-powered
vehicle is more suitable).
(5)
You plan to own it for over 5 years
(battery-charging scooters currently have a low market share, and resale demand
is even lower. Transferring ownership is complicated, requiring you to handle
the vehicle, battery, and personal account transfer within the manufacturer’s
system, which can easily cause transaction delays. If you plan to sell it after
one or two years, you’ll regret it when you see the low resale price).
(6)
If you love speeding and are confident
you won't crash, electric scooters aren't for you (electric scooters combine
the downside of large plastic body panels common in scooters with the fact that
electric motors and control units can only be replaced, not repaired. Repairing
moderate or severe damage will cost at least one-third of the vehicle’s price,
leaving you with a bill that makes you regret your purchase).
Once
you've thoroughly considered these six points, deciding whether to buy a
battery-swapping electric scooter will be a joyful experience.
How to value the
opinions of those quitting electric scooters and the haters?
The
internet is full of experts, influencers, and angry rants, so it's no surprise
that a search for electric scooter "quitting" videos will yield a
good number of hater content. These videos cover a wide range of scenarios, but
the situations can generally be summarized as follows:
(1)
They moved or their lifestyle changed,
making battery swapping less convenient.
(2)
They rarely ride the scooter and
mainly use it heavily only when needed, which makes them resent the monthly
subscription fees.
(3)
They've had accidents or crashes, and
the repair bills were frightening, prompting them to make videos to warn others
after quitting.
(4)
Their scooter couldn't be properly
repaired, and the shop owners and mechanics were unhelpful and unfriendly. On
this point, since there are many brands and models of electric scooters, I’ve
only owned an EC-05 and never had a bad repair experience, so I don’t have much
of a stance to comment on this.
About Gogoro Network’s
battery and swapping system
While
there are several aspects of Gogoro’s corporate culture that people find
irritating, the battery swapping system developed by the founders and their
company, as well as their investment in electric scooter R&D for battery
sales, have been market-tested over the past seven years. We can confidently
say that their products and business model have charted a clear path for the
development of electric scooters and even electric cars. This path includes
battery swapping systems for scooters, fast charging systems for cars, and
heavy motorcycles (with over 30 horsepower) allowing manufacturers to choose
their own specifications. Not only can Taiwan safely develop long-term policies
based on this, but it’s also a model other countries can adopt, making it another
proud achievement for Taiwan. The key points are:
(1)
Battery development:
In just seven years, Gogoro Network’s batteries have undergone three upgrades:
the 1st generation Panasonic 18650 battery, the 1.5 generation LG 18650
battery, and the 2nd generation Panasonic 21700 battery. Besides being safe,
the battery capacity has gradually increased by about 25%, with room for
further improvement (the prototype of the 3rd generation solid-state battery
has already been unveiled). The most important aspect is that these upgrades
have not impacted users, the power supply network, or manufacturers. The core
power product updates don’t require changes to the underlying infrastructure,
allowing businesses of all sizes in the supply chain to survive and grow. This
multi-win model benefits the nation and society.
(2)
User convenience: Swapping
a scooter’s battery takes less than 20 seconds, faster than refueling a
gas-powered vehicle, solving the congestion and power shortage issues that
would arise during peak hours with charging stations. The battery’s weight and
design make it easy for consumers to handle, and the closed system prevents
users from repurposing it for unsafe activities that could pose public risks.
This model surpasses gas stations and benefits society. As for electric cars,
the power required is too great (current developments suggest that 70 kWh will
be the standard, compared to the 1.7 kWh batteries that most electric scooters
use, a 20-fold difference), and consumers can’t handle such heavy batteries,
making battery swapping impractical. (Although some Chinese automakers have
tried swapping batteries in electric cars, the market has shown limited
potential for this.) Instead, the focus will continue to be on ultra-high-power
fast charging (currently, 100 kW is the standard, 300 kW products are already
in operation, and 1000 kW standards are still in testing). Over the next
decade, there’s a good chance that industry-wide standards will be established,
allowing for electric car batteries to charge 50% in under 10 minutes. Overall,
for the next 10 years, scooters and cars will struggle to share the same
system, and Gogoro has developed an excellent battery-swapping system for
scooters globally, which is impressive.
(3)
Reducing impact on other industries: When
a product, technology, or industry innovation leads to the large-scale
replacement or elimination of other industries, the resulting social
instability and imbalance can be costly. Many people still remember the social
impact caused by Uber replacing taxis a few years ago. The electric vehicle
industry no longer relies on internal combustion engines, and governments in
Germany and Japan estimate that it will reduce employment by about 15%. Imagine
buying an electric scooter and being excited about it, only to see your
neighbors or relatives lose their jobs, or the local mechanic’s shop close
down. This is typically not a good outcome. The battery-swapping stations for
scooters and the fast-charging stations for cars allow gas station operators to
transition and continue operating. Battery swapping and fast charging involve
high-current, high-voltage equipment, which can be dangerous and harmful to
health, so it’s better to keep them out of residential communities.
Additionally, introducing such equipment into the low-voltage areas of the
power grid at the end-user level would greatly increase risks, requiring a
complete overhaul of the electrical infrastructure, which is costly and
time-consuming, potentially taking years. Gogoro’s battery-swapping model, with
its moderate power demand, flexible modular design, and ability to scale from
small to large, allows existing gas station operators to continue their
business. This model enables businesses to make a profit and contributes
positively to social stability.
Possible development directions
for the electric scooter industry
(1)
Taiwan's domestic scooter market has a
capacity of 800,000 to 1 million units annually, giving the industry the
potential to develop international-level competitiveness. Electric scooters are
naturally included in this, especially since Taiwanese companies have had a
relatively faster start compared to other countries and are in good shape. This
should be more reassuring and hopeful than relying solely on TSMC, with its
dozen or so fabs, as Taiwan’s national guardian.
(2)
Over the past few years, both the
technology and consumer markets have proven that using a battery-swapping
system for electric scooters is the best operational model, without exception.
If, by some chance, this turns out to be wrong, switching from battery swapping
to a charging model has low transition costs. On the contrary, transforming
from a charging model to a battery-swapping system is nearly impossible. The
trends and answers to technological development are already clear and low-risk,
allowing the government to play a more proactive and confident role.
(3)
Batteries, power grids, and scooters
are essentially three separate industries, each large enough and specialized in
its own field. While some companies aim to dominate the entire market, this is
part of business freedom, and we can't oppose it. However, the government must
maintain an open and competitive industrial environment to ensure continued
innovation and progress, while avoiding monopolies and unfair competition.
(4)
Taiwan's scooter market isn't large
enough to support multiple battery-swapping systems. Competition among
operators could hinder user convenience. For example, at a gas station, you can
choose to fill up with CPC, Formosa, Shell, or ELF fuel—this is the ideal
model.
(5)
To scale the industry, give businesses
international competitiveness, maintain open competition and innovation, and
provide convenience for society, the government could seriously consider
standardizing battery sizes, input/output power formats, power grid
specifications, safety regulations, and universal charging management
protocols. Users should only need to interact with a single battery-swapping
grid (similar to how any home appliance can be plugged into a socket, but the
power provider might be Taipower, Formosa, Chang Sheng, or Taiwan Cement, with
the energy source being coal, gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, or wind
power).
(6)
Since the industry's development
trajectory is clear, Gogoro should consider splitting into at least two
companies. The battery-swapping grid could open up to joint ventures with
scooter and related companies, issue public stock, welcome international capital,
or even have government-led investments. The most important goal is to maintain
open competition, allowing a single standardized battery-swapping system to
achieve economies of scale in Taiwan, and possibly expand internationally,
benefiting businesses, the public, and the government.
(7)
Major players in the complete scooter
industry, like Kymco, SYM, or even cross-industry companies like Chunghwa,
should seize the opportunity during the early stages of electric scooter
development when the market is still small, and transition costs for scooters
and equipment are still low. They could utilize this proven safe and reliable
battery-swapping system, which could also gain government support for low-cost
applications, and quickly introduce various innovative and mature models on a
common platform.
(8)
Standardizing the battery-swapping
system not only incentivizes scooter manufacturers to transition from fuel to
electric smoothly but also accelerates the government's carbon reduction goals.
The battery-swapping grid, apart from its current operators like Gogoro,
Ruentex, and government investors, could attract heavyweight equipment
companies like Delta Electronics and Chung Hsing Electric to invest, as well as
lower-tier operators like gas stations, parking lots, and even energy giants to
join in or compete. As for the battery industry, the trend is becoming even
clearer, with opportunities for SYM’s development of aluminum batteries,
Formosa’s lithium iron phosphate battery ventures, and even China's CATL to
accelerate the growth of our industry.
(9)
The public is more concerned about
whether the scooters are enjoyable to ride. Looking at the mainstream electric
scooters over the past few years, with a range of 50 kilometers and total sales
reaching 500,000 units, capturing 3.5% of the market, the second-generation
21700 battery now pushes the range to nearly 100 kilometers, all while prices
remain steady (and even slightly decreasing). If the entire battery-swapping
system is upgraded within three years, a market share of 5% for electric
scooters is achievable. If electric scooters can reach a range of 200
kilometers, then fuel scooters might be phased out by the consumer market
before Taiwan’s Stage 8 environmental standards even take effect. Achieving a
200-kilometer range within the next 10 years seems highly probable, not only
because high-energy-density battery technologies are entering the testing and
production stages, but also because it’s reasonable to expect room for a third
battery in the footwell area of existing mainstream scooter designs.
(10)
A side note: It’s uncertain whether
this battery-swapping system could compete internationally (to be honest,
Taiwan’s businesses often lack international success, and the government has
frequently been mistreated), but at least domestically, it’s convenient and
popular. One could reasonably expect this system to expand to unlicensed three-
and four-wheel logistics vehicles in industrial areas (there are already at
least two products on the market) and agricultural vehicles in rural areas.
Cleaning up the pollution from these smoky "octopuses" would be
fantastic. Moreover, ATVs, which don’t sell well domestically but are a hot
export item, typically use four or more batteries, making them another good
product market. However, the electric bicycle segment, except for true
pedal-assisted models, is essentially just electric scooters in disguise.
Personally, I’d prefer to see them disappear from the planet (although they are
a lot of fun to modify).
Hopefully,
this lengthy introduction will help more people understand the EC-05 and
battery-swapping electric scooters. And through this interesting and
informative scooter, I hope to attract more people to learn about the current
state and trends of the electric scooter and electric vehicle industries.
Most
importantly: Don’t ask me where to buy this scooter when you see me at a red
light or parked on the roadside looking for a restroom! (^^)
Further reading recommendation:
沒有留言:
張貼留言