2010年台北車展在1月3日落幕。整體來說這不能算是一場成功的展演：不僅參演的廠商意興闌珊，為期9天的展覽只有Luxgen 7 SUV、中華汽車的e-moving電氣二輪車2部新車上市；吉利與奇瑞兩家大陸車廠首次在台灣亮相，前者硬是不願正面承認自己的陸車身份，後者甚至婉拒媒體採訪與報價；最有創意的展場活動是Lexus LFA水晶車，嚴格來說這個特色演出的重點是雷射立體雕塑，而非汽車工藝；就連開世界風氣之先把車展變成賣場(每次想來都覺得丟臉，這種世界紀錄不要也罷)，販賣成績也不理想。除了Luxgen之外，其餘車商接單量均未超過100部。顯示消費市場也是興趣缺缺需求疲軟。
一葉知秋，難道台灣乃至於全球的汽車市場，姑且不論汽車生產與銷售暴增但實際上無油可加無路可走的中國大陸、印度、巴西市場泡沫，面對石化能源危機與環境生態保護的雙重壓力，等待汽車市場的不僅是寒冬，而是一整段冰河時期？
事實恐怕不如這幾年主要已開發國家汽車市場的銷售數字那樣悲觀，不過也絕非像大陸車市的飛躍成長那樣令人期待。最重要的原因是汽車這樣的個人載具，即使有飛機、高速鐵路、捷運、公共汽車、摩托車、與自行車等不同交通工具的嚴格挑戰，事實證明汽車仍是個人點對點(door to door)最安全、舒適、有效率(尤其是同時考慮時間與耗能成本)的最佳化交通工具，只要人類繼續存在，對汽車的龐大基本需求仍會繼續存在。但總括來說，汽車產業在未來五至十年間面臨3個關鍵的瓶頸，能率先突破障礙的國家與業者應該可以享有在下個十年的超額成長，不能轉型的國家與業者會遭到全球市場的無情淘汰。
第1個關鍵瓶頸，來自於汽車業迄今對自己應負擔對地球的環保責任仍然欠缺適當認識，甚至有拒絕承認逃避責任的消極作為。汽車產業大量依賴並消耗石化原料與金屬礦產以製成各式零組件、在加工製造過程中消耗大量能源並排出有機溶劑廢棄物與金屬粉塵等污染，汽車在使用生命週期內除了持續消耗石化燃料，還排出大量溫室氣體CO2與有毒氣體NOx、環芳香烴等物質。單就目前大家公認亟需克服的溫室氣體減量來看，構成全球溫室氣體排放比最高的四大部門：能源、工業製造、畜牧、與交通運輸，汽車產業就與其中三個部門息息相關。不過汽車業者總能挾其從業人口總數多、產值佔GDP比例高、國營企業或特許經營為談判籌碼，在全球各地不斷擴張產能卻僅需負擔微不足道的節能減碳責任。對照現今全球汽車業約8千萬輛的產能與僅有5千萬輛的銷售規模，光是閒置產能的碳足跡就是不得了的浪費，但社會大眾看到的是Toyota、Volkswagen、GM、Hyundai還在為爭奪全球銷量龍頭持續擴產。各國的政府實在有必要賞給汽車業者一拳，要求他們從「有效率的生產者」長大成熟為「能自律的生產者」。
第2個關鍵在於現有的商業技術在成本與功率上，無法讓汽車普遍改用清淨能源。以目前較有潛力的技術為例：氫燃料電池技術尚需克服氫氣的大量生產、運輸、與安全儲存的問題，從汽車內的合金貯氫鋼瓶、加氫站、到製氫工廠，意謂這是一個巨大的產業革命，普及化的時間可能需要廿年甚至更久；氧化鋅ZOE燃料電池剛走出實驗室，2009年在法蘭克福車展首度亮相，商品化的時程變數很難具體估計；純電池驅動車輛關鍵零件在蓄電池，目前有蓄電重量能量密度不足(目前產業均值在100 Wh/kg，續航里程在150 km以下)、電池壽命短(可充放電次數在2,000次以下)、鋰以及稀土元素(例如釹)全球可開採儲量不足等問題。電池重量能量密度達到300 Wh/kg以及充放電次數到達3,000次水準的商轉技術可望在10年間開發完成，但關鍵金屬原料的不足，可能才是純電動車未來無法普及的決定性因素。
第3個關鍵則是將汽車產業的價值鏈完整延展為可永續循環使用的價值鏈，也就是讓汽車業由「能自律的生產者」再晉階成為「負責任的生產者」。近廿年來歐、美、我國將報廢汽車委託由回收業者負責處理的作法，證實有資源回收效率低、回收作業二次污染(其實就是將無法處理的部分以廢五金等各種名目加以掩埋或丟棄至第三世界國家)、甚至還有黑道介入的問題。就廢棄物的數量與污染程度而言，汽車可以說是排行在家電、電腦與通訊產品之後，應受苛責較小。但汽車業寡佔、生產者較少、車輛有登記牌照易於追蹤的特性，有利於政府機構規範與查核汽車生產者由設計、製程端開始即負擔回收與永續利用的責任與義務。最激烈的發展方向，則可能是汽車製造商的生產配額由回收效率與污染減量效果來核發認定。由汽車業來主導廢棄車輛回收，有可能來自政府政策的壓力，有潛在的新事業商機，市場領先者更可能將汽車由高污染黑名單轉化為消費者樂於購買的環保產品，在汽車銷售市場將投資不足的對手淘汰出局。
面對未來的五~十年這個汽車產業的巨大轉型期，也就是迎接黎明之前的陣痛期，下列幾個汽車產業的發展方向，可能是未來「贏家方程式」的重要主角：
一、
油電混合車成為汽車市場的主流：不過Toyota請先別高興太早，因為成為市場銷售主流的可能會以Mercedes S400h這樣的串聯式電力輔助系統為大宗，意即電力驅動只負責快速啟動引擎與並提供起步再加速額外扭力。這個系統的最大優勢在於僅提升車價10%，有別於Toyota並聯式系統較性能同級車車價高出40%，能有效提升消費者的購買意願。成本增加有限卻解決了內燃機引擎三大缺點(怠速的無效運轉、引擎轉速變化階段燃燒不完全的高污染、燃氣爆發時產生的大量無效餘熱)的第一項，且部分改善了第二項。隨著電池效能的進步，這套系統可以彈性地擴張電力驅動的工作範圍與時間，終極目標就是讓內燃機變成一個轉速固定的低污染發電機，再等待氫燃料電池或純電動車系統時代的來臨，油電混合車協助汽車業轉型的時代任務就算功德圓滿了。
二、
三明治車體結構衍生的迷你廂型車成為車廠銷售主力車款。三明治車體不是什麼新的概念，這種第一層底盤是懸吊驅動件、第二層是引擎動力機構、第三層是車室空間的設計得以鹹魚翻身的理由，在於第二層底盤容許汽車設計師有放置大量車用電池的空間，為油電混合車過渡至純電動車作準備。三明治車體所提供的平整車室地板與相同車身長度限制下最大車室空間的利益，則是吸引消費者採購的誘因。
三、
動力電池的封裝規格與充電放電電壓等國際技術標準與認證規範的制訂。有了產業通用的標準，電池供應商藉由車用動力電池市場的規模經濟，才有辦法放手研發新的瞬間功率更大的正極與負極材料、更安全且成本較低的防過熱防爆阻斷結構，更快突破電池重量能量密度300 Wh/kg以及充放電次數到達3,000次水準的電動車商轉技術門檻。
四、
取得鋰與稀土金屬(釹Nd：釹鐵硼磁鐵效能可達一般磁鐵的10倍，號稱「永磁之王」；鏑Dy：亦有提升磁鐵磁力近10倍的效果；鑭La：廣泛用於壓電、電熱、磁阻與貯氫材料；鈰Ce：是觸媒轉換器的催化劑之一，且具備吸收紫外線與紅外線特性使其成為抗UV與隔熱玻璃的添加劑)的穩定貨源與供貨價格。鋰與稀土金屬其實在全球的蘊藏量不低，但因在各項工業產品的應用範圍廣泛，當汽車產業轉以電力驅動車輛為主，鋰與稀土金屬的供給目前看來遠遠無法滿足需求。另外鋰與稀土金屬全球產能近50%分別集中在波利維亞與中國大陸兩個政治相對較不安定的國家，不確定因素更高。因此未來幾年或許會有國際大型汽車業者仿效百年前的福特車廠擁有自己的鐵砂礦場一般，直接購買鋰或稀土金屬的礦場。
五、
汽車生產歷程的碳足跡強制標示。意即除了安全、舒適、性能、省油、價格合理這些汽車完成品的表現之外，社會大眾會將汽車廠在製造、生產、運送的環保表現，當作購買汽車的參考因素之一。對於汽車製造商而言，減少碳足跡的生產方式通常也意味著生產成本的降低，對於碳足跡強制標示的抗拒排斥較小，也有助於政府單位推動執行該項政策。
六、
生質燃料的普及。不過在以澱粉酯化的生質柴油與蛋白質酯化的生質酒精的競賽中，可能會由生質酒精勝出。原因在於生質柴油的原料主要依賴作物的種子，這類經濟作物的栽種與食用作物的栽種形成互斥影響人類的糧食供給；生質酒精原料主要來自於食用作物的廢料(如玉米梗)，對糧食市場不構成威脅。生質燃料的全面普及可能發生在2010年代的後半段，也就是油電混合車系統中電池發展較成熟，內燃機只需恆速運轉擔綱發電機功能的時代。內燃機的運轉單純化，代表對燃料純淨與可靠度的要求可以降低，甚至可以像早期軍用柴油車輛利用黏度補償器使用多種燃料皆可運轉，也就是說生質燃料得以較低的提煉成本與售價進入市場，適度取代石化燃料。這樣的技術發展對消費者還有一些額外的好處：哪天汽車沒油停在路邊，也可以跑到鄰近的松青超市或是全聯社買桶沙拉油倒進油箱，再度輕鬆上路。
七、
汽車製造商與進口代理商需強制經營汽車回收事業。一部汽車由1萬多個零件組成，期待不具備汽車專業知識的回收業者提升回收效率與產值並不實際。汽車回收處理由汽車製造商負責，除了符合污染者付費負責的公平正義原則，汽車業者對旗下產品各項零件的組成原料與裝卸方式較他人更加瞭解，處理的效率更高是為合理的推論；另外，由製造商負責的機制亦能強迫製造商在汽車設計階段即考量回收的效益與處理成本；汽車業在全球盲目擴產而遭到閒置的廠房、設備與人力也可望能再度有效運用。最重要的是汽車業能永續利用資源與親善地球的程度愈高，消費者樂於新購換購的動機增加，更容易形成汽車銷售增加，生產者與消費者雙贏的結果。
展望2010年開啟的新十年，謹希望汽車產業業者可以儘速調整體質，掌握市場脈動，亦祝福有識之士都能夠運籌帷幄成為市場贏家，同時也能造福消費者與社會國家。
There
was a soundless TAIPEI MOTOR SHOW held from last Christmas to 3rd
January 2010. Thanks for the over-50% sales shrinkage from annual 500 thousand
vehicles to 200 thousand ones, this time the biggest biannual motor show in
this island premieres only 2 new models namely a Luxgen 7 SUV and a CMC
e-moving electric motorcycle, 2 mainland-China Makes Geely and Chery, and a
beautiful Lexus LFA crystal unit although it’s a laser sculpture rather than a
motor actually. Even the sales-orders taken in exhibition lot which usually
seen in motor shows in South-eastern Asia countries has reduced over 60%
compared to the past, only the locally-built Make Luxgen claimed that it got
over 100 orders.
See
the world from a particle of sand. Under pressures of fossil-energy shortage
and greenhouse effect, does it mean that global automotive market except China, India
and Brazil
bubbles with cars crowded but no fuels and roads might face a glacial period
rather than a freezing winter?
The truth may not be so pessimistic as the car
sales in developed countries but can not be expected with jumping growth in China. Even
severely challenged by aircraft, high-speed railway, underground express, bus,
scooter, bicycle, etc., car has proven itself to be an optimized door-to-door
personal carrier by its safety, comfort, time-saving and reasonable cost. As
long as human being exists, the great demand of cars do as well. But the
automotive industry meets 3 key barriers in the forthcoming decade, the auto-industry
conquerors will be rewarded by overbalance growth, and the losers could be
evaporated from the battle field.
The 1st
barrier comes from the deliberate unconsciousness of automotive industry, at
least most ones in this industry, regarding the environment responsibility to
earth. This industry relies on lots of petroleum and mineral resources to
produce variety of components, and re-processes them by consuming huge energy
and with discharging organic solvents, metal powders and other poisons.
Vehicles in lifetime keep exhausting CO2, NOx, PAH, etc.. If looking
at the top-4 divisions generating greenhouse gases – energy, manufacturing,
stockbreeding and transportation, the automotive industry involves heavily with
3 of them. This defendant continues production expansions worldwide but
undertakes deeply asymmetric energy-saving and carbon-reduction duties by
carrot-and-sticks of its employee totals, GDP proportion, government-hold or
chartered identity.
Enormous
carbon footprints engrave heavily in the idle facilities between the global
80-million production capacity and the only 50-million sales, but we see
soap-opera every day that Toyota,
VAG, GM and Hyundai are busy at expansion and fight for the world No. 1. Governments
should give this industry a punch to grow up from an effective manufacturer to
a self-disciplined one.
The 2nd
barrier is the cost and work-done issues of the commoditizing technologies
regarding cars adopting clean energy. Among the potential candidates, hydrogen
fuel-cell still faces mass production, transportation, and safety-storage
problems. Implementing the fueling chain from hydrogen plant, gas station,
alloy-grabbing hydrogen steel-bottles in cars, to the durable hydrogen
fuel-cell battery system indicates an industrial revolution rather than a renovation
which requires 20 years even longer for folks. ZOE (Zinc-oxide) fuel-cell
battery, just walking out the laboratory and seen in 2009 FRANKFURT MOTOR SHOW,
is hard to list a cost estimation and time table. PEV (pure electricity
vehicle) seems get everything done but battery. Current battery technologies,
already good job for a lap-top but a muck for a car, performs
industrial-average 100 watt-hour/kg, max mileage reaching 150 km, recharging life of 2,000 times. It
sounds not so bad that 10 years will allow the batteries enhanced to 300 Wh/kg
and recharging 3,000 times under reasonable commodity cost. Unfortunately the
decisive challenge is the deposit shortage of lithium and rare-earth elements
e.g. neodymium, which are the key components in battery and electric motor now
matter in PEV, lap-top, mobile phone, air conditioners, etc..
The 3rd
barrier will occurs in building an enduring recycling value-chain. It indicates
automotive industry has to upgrade itself from a self-disciplined supplier to a
responsible one. What happened in selected developed countries in latest decades told us, the recycling
industry dealing with the carcass of the tones-weighted mechanical beast costs
not-enough efficiency, gangsters, and second pollution, especially unprocessed
garbage shipped out and abandoned in African countries under the name of ‘used
metal or computer parts’. According to the scrap-amount total and the pollution
degree, the automotive industry can not be blamed as top criminal prior than
home electricity, computer, and communication products, but it is the easiest
one to be monitored and supervised from development beginning to retiring end
by governments due to limited Makes from its oligopoly-market characteristic
and full-ownership tracking from license and number-plate registration. As an
extreme threaten, the auto Makes could be obliged by governments to recycle respondent
vehicle-scraps for production or import quota. As opportunities, the recycling
business foretells profit potentiality, and the automotive industry can be
removed from the black list of environmental groups and benchmarked as welcome
green products for bringing lost young-generation customers back.
Passing
through the birth pang before hugging the dawn light of automotive industry in
the coming decade, guidelines and directions for winners might read as follows:
A.
Hybrid vehicles to be mainstream dominating
the market. But it might not be a good news for product-leading Toyota using
parallel-connection hybrid , because the winner system could a kind of the
series-connection hybrid installed in Mercedes S400h which its electricity
power only offers engine-quick-start and extra torque in acceleration and
re-acceleration. The greatest advantage of Mercedes-style system is the car
price only increased by 10%, compared to 40% of Toyota-style one. Accord to the
3 basic defects of internal-combustion engine, namely fuel consuming in idling,
high pollution of incomplete burning within rev changes, and useless heat from
60% of combustion energy, the Mercedes system shoots the idling and a part of
rev-change pollution. When battery efficiency moves on, the electric power in
this series-connection hybrid will expand its serving range and time until
ultimately ideal status that the internal-combustion unit acts as a pure
electricity generator in constant rpm. When hybrid system has such a
constant-rpm engine, the hybrid decade can be glorified as mature enough to be
bridged between internal-combustion era and the forthcoming
hydrogen-fuel-cell or PEV era.
B.
Minivans built upon sandwich
body-chassis rule the market tomorrow. Sandwich body-chassis, fitted
transmission and suspension mechanics in 1st layer, power train in 2nd layer and cabin structure on 3rd
layer, is not a fancy nor new idea but could be renascent with its large allowance
of battery compartment in 2nd layer for car designers, which means
perfect elasticity for car Makes to launch face-lifts or model changes
transformed from hybrid to hydrogen-fuel cell or PEV with reasonable cost,
continuing product image, as well as customer convenience. More than that, the
flat cabin floor and maximized space from sandwich body-chassis issue some
other incentives for buyers.
C.
Collaborations across Makes, industries and
countries for setting up the technique and homologation standards regarding cell
specifications, packaging, working voltage, ampere, durability, safety
requirement, etc.. More globalized standard means greater economic scale of
car-power batteries, thus suppliers and developers are dare to invest and
research new choices for positive pole and negative pole with more discharging
watt, safer and costless over-heat interruption, prevention treatment, etc., which
will turn the clock earlier for implementing
battery cross over power density of 300 Wh/kg
and rechargeable life of 3,000 times.
D.
Fights for lithium and rare-earth elements
such as neodymium seen in ‘king of permanent magnet Nd2Fe14B’
, dysprosium for reducing magnet weight by 90%, lanthanum applied in
piezoelectric, radiator, reluctance, and hydrogen-storage alloy, cerium as a
treatment ingredient in catalyst converter and additives in UV-cut as well as insulator
glasses by its peculiarity of absorbing ultraviolet and infrared. Lithium and
rare-earth elements are not rare on earth, but for these minerals already used
in plenty of industries, their supplies and prices will be a disaster when automotive
industry transmutes itself an electricity-driven Tyrannosaurus Rex swallowing
lithium and rare-earth elements everywhere. Furthermore, supply stability would
be critical politic risks due to 50% of these minerals are excavated and
shipped out from Bolivia and
China.
Perhaps couple years later, some automotive groups will learn a lesson from
Ford hundred years ago to buy out mine fields as their own.
E.
Compulsory notation of carbon footprints
covering vehicle’s raw-material input, manufacturing, assembly and
transportation. Besides of safety, comfort, horsepower, fuel-saving and
price-value items, customers would be educated or encouraged to consider the
environment-friendly issues of the Makes and models in their choosing basket.
On the other hand, lean carbon-footprint production usually co-exists with
energy saving and potentiality of cost down. It benefits automotive
manufacturers in some way and also indicates lower resistance against this kind
of the policy.
F.
Popularity of bio-fuels, however, bio-ethanol
might wipe out bio-diesel eventually. The crux happens that the raw materials
of starch-esterified bio-diesel come from plant seeds, these economic plants
for bio-diesel and food plants repel each other, it has been proven that some
food shortage occurred. On the contrary the protein-esterified bio-ethanol, distilled
from the waste of food plant such as corn branch, seems much harmless to food
supply. Global popularity of bio-fuels will not happen until mature hybrid
system fitted with constant-rpm-engine generator, likely late 2010’s. The simplified and light-burden
engine asks fuels for less clarity and reliability, which seen in bio-fuels,
and probably works with multi fuels via viscosity compensator just like the
system in former military trucks. It allows bio-fuels replacing quite a
percentage of fossil fuels by lower abstraction cost and competitive price. In
case of running out of fuel on road at that day, you might have a bottle of
salad oil in nearby grocery store but not a faraway gas station, feed the tank
and drive your car away.
G.
Legal obligation for car manufacturers and
import distributors to recycle their vehicles delivered. Enhancing efficiency
and value is tough for an irrelevant and layman recycle-industry dealing with
hundreds of car Makes and models and over 10 thousands components each unit. Recycling
undertaken by car Makes meets polluter-pays justice, leaves the decoding,
detaching, extraction, reuse and resale works to the experts who own all the
secrets regarding part compositions and assembly puzzles. Besides this
polluter-pays mechanism no only forces car Makes to include recycling cost and
revenue from early design and development end, but also rescues and reutilizes
the factories, facilities and employees idled from blind expansions globally in
last decade. The all-important point is a win-win effect between car Makes and
customers when energy-saving and earth-evergreen vehicles convince customers
keeping to replace their old ones and even purchasing additional new cars
without pressures or extra cost from environment protection regulations.
Good days will quite likely come in 2010’s, sooner or later. Early birds
capturing the downwind will survive and grow, late movers might be buried in
history. May orders and insight give to automotive-industry winners, as well as
benefit society and this planet.
沒有留言:
張貼留言