人生是非常奇妙的事:廿幾年前我從中興大學農產運銷學系畢業再服役返家,原本家母介紹安排了農會月薪近四萬元的工作,就當時的大學生而言算是相當優渥。但顯然沒什麼算術概念的我選擇去月薪二萬出頭的汽車公司服務,期間有幸經歷汽車工廠籌建到銷售體系發展、國內到國外、產業的波谷波峰、活該找罪受到當時國內尚稱翹楚的研究所念MBA拓寬視野、也對汽車相關的能源、製造、交通運輸、環保永續等公共領域表達雞婆關心…原本以為這輩子會抓著方向盤坐在四個輪子上退休,沒想到廿年後會回到農業界擔任經管顧問的工作。
從轟隆隆銀色機械怪獸盤踞的工業區、十色聲光人馬雜沓競爭劇烈的零售服務產業、再轉移回歸到青蔥翠綠生意盎然的農業領域,好處是可以由不同的視野看待產業問題。尤其是我由台北搭乘捷運、高鐵,順者電梯到租車站,拎著Garmin-Asus的導航手機就輕鬆開車到村里鄉間沒有門牌號碼的農場農企業拜訪,但迎面熱誠接待幾個小時泡茶聊天聊不完的,常是一群年近六旬的老農、兒孫都在都市謀生求學因而空蕩蕩的庭院、偶見騎著破舊摩托車來領錢但月薪通常是二萬二不到的原住民、日後聯絡還會發現寫信寄信還比e-mail快… 內心的衝撞是巨大、甚至有些感覺窒息!
農業非常重要,但政府與社會大眾嘴裡都說重要但老實說心裡覺得不是很重要,所以農地不斷地減少、農村就業人口所得也在減少。畢竟用腳投票要比用嘴投票要實在多了。所以就讓我應用一些都市人、產業專家、投資人的觀點語彙,詮釋一下農業這個對普羅大眾是近在咫尺遠在天涯的產業,也許大家在讀後會有不一樣的看法。
以下的文章將分為三個章節:「農業非常重要」、「台灣農業的主要問題」、「永續農業的政策建議」,自曝拙見供讀者參考:
壹、農業非常重要
要說一個產值只有佔國內GDP
1.6%的產業要比光電產業、石化工業重要,乍看實在是強辭奪理。但從三個要素觀點來看,農業具備重要的地位價值:
一、
關鍵必要特質:2年不用手機、5年不開車、10年沒看電視、一輩子沒聽周杰倫、蔡依林、蔡琴、費玉清的演唱會的確影響生活品質,但3天沒吃飯的代價是生存抉擇。道理自明。
二、
被低估的真實成本:農業生產仰賴的陽光、水、土地、生命物種、空氣,因為地球不懂技術授權與保護智慧財產權的關係,所以是免費的。但人們想要製造與複製的真實成本是巨大、或是根本無法達成。意即我們想要在桃園複製生產濁水溪流域由合歡山系沖刷下來富含矽酸鎂的肥沃黒土,就算是鐵血的郭台銘都辦不到;想要用人工代替蜜蜂、紋白蝶幫多種蔬菜花果授粉,技術上可行但代價也恐是兆元級的規模。就算不理上述的「固定成本」,只看土壤、水、生態遭到工業、民生、或是農業本身因化學農藥、肥料以及畜牧污染破壞後加以回復的「變動成本」,這些我們該支付地球而耍賴拖欠的「帳單」,就足以讓農業佔GDP 30~50%的水準。
三、
超級乘數效果:紐西蘭的奇異果以Zsepri品牌運輸分裝行銷到世界各國,包括你我家裡的冰箱,這個年營業額新台幣250億元的事業,主要來自2,700個農戶約1.2萬公頃的果園;我們從松青超市買回來的「台灣黃金雞」、五星級飯店動輒上萬元的情人節套餐、麥當勞、四海遊龍、台中新社的花海之旅、身上穿的竹炭棉紡內衣、客廳裡從紐約大都會家具中心以5折出清價搬回來的Lorenzo真皮沙發、洗手間裡的春風衛生紙Lux香皂、孩子書包裡來自中華紙漿中興紙業材料印製的課本、羽毛球上的鵝毛、中華職棒Mizuno指定用球裡塞的兔毛、或是我的汽車上那四只以天然橡膠為基本原料的正新Maxxis輪胎、讓林月雲侯佩岑母女看來像姊妹的深海魚類膠原蛋白、大部分香水配方都必須使用的香水天竺葵(也就是我們在花市隨處可買的防蚊樹)、國光生化製造流感疫苗必要雞胚胎蛋白載體、或是用於治療乳癌、卵巢癌、非小細胞肺癌、前列腺癌的化療藥物–從太平洋紫杉樹皮萃取的紫杉醇等…都是以農業原料為基礎增值擴張的工、商、服務、醫健企業與產業。我們由價值擴散的角度來看:可以說食品、餐廳、生鮮市場、家具家飾、觀光休閒業都可以算是「泛農業」的一部分;也可以產品製造工程的上下游垂直觀點來做產業分析:發現農業是大部分的工商產業之母。
下一次再見到農林漁牧的朋友,相信讀者們能真誠地佩服感謝他們從事工作的重要, ^_^。
貳、台灣農業的主要問題
「匱乏中的不穩定」見諸在農委會施政計畫中為台灣農業所下的註解,言簡意賅地點出了我們的糧食自給率僅32%(以熱量權數計算)的巨大系統風險且非常傳神。而造成「匱乏中的不穩定」的主要原因,依其邏輯與重要性,可以歸納如下:
一、
缺水:
我們國家的水資源,概約是農業佔70%、民生用水佔20%、工業10%的使用比例分配;對於用水品質的要求,依序是民生>農業>工業的特性,只有工業製造業具備排放水可以循環再利用的潛能;對於水源投資與水價的影響能力,則呈現民生>工業>農業的態勢,農業其實是被摒除在水資源開發與主要供配系統的建構的決策圈之外。為了快速簡單符合各式中央地方選舉的選民與利益團體期待,長期低迷的水價導致水資源開發維護的投資停滯,水庫清淤等數百億規模的必要工程無法施作,全台現有33座水庫有16座淤積率達30%以上。因為投資不足導致的水供給缺口還有各級政府無法承擔的民生缺水危機,最「速食」的因應方式就是將產值不高的水田轉旱田或是直接休耕;因為產值稅收與地方就業機會考量而到處林立的科學園區,工業用水逐漸排擠農業用水,隨之而來的廢水排放再衝擊當地的農業生產;無發言發聲權力的農民找不到地面水就轉攻地下水,導致更嚴重的地層下陷與農地鹽化問題。
二、
可用農地減少:
我們現有82萬公頃的耕地。若是以1公頃生產5公噸作物的完美理想值來看,連本地畜禽業每年所需的500萬噸玉米都無法支應,但農地還在以每年5~10%的速度不斷減少。 因「產銷調節」、「市場競爭力不足」、缺水等原因而辦理的休耕是看得見的農地縮減。近廿年大量的科學園區、高速公路與快速道路交通網、高鐵站區航空城與大型都會城市的市郊重劃區等則是吞噬農地的沈默巨獸。尤其是對照景氣蕭條傳產外移與人口成長趨緩,這些反其道而行的吃地規劃愈值得審視關注。另外,休閒觀光產業與豪宅蠶食進入農業區,造成農地的低度利用或污染廢耕,亦值得留意。
三、
國人飲食習慣的改變:
隨著所得增加衍生的美味、快速方便、以及飽足以外的健康需求,國人消費的肉類、蛋、水產、蔬菜、水果都可以維持80%以上的自給率。但是穀類的消費由米食轉為偏好麵粉類食品,較有生產競爭力的稻米栽種面積30年來減少5成以上僅餘22萬公頃;小麥、家畜家禽飼料所需的玉米大豆需仰賴進口,蔗糖由國產轉為進口,全年進口量近900萬公噸;乳品則有70%以上仰賴進口。可知多元且西化的飲食習慣亦是造成糧食自給率偏低的主要因素之一。
四、
生產方式欠缺競爭力:
原本是為了防止農地被不當使用的農地移轉繼承限制相關規定,一方面是地方政府與中央其它機關單位另有考量大開後門導致農地減少;另一方面繼承農地的世代數與人數持續增加,農戶人均農地僅1.3公頃(也就是115公尺見方,一個成年人花不到1.5分鐘就可以跑一圈)且農地交易的複雜度提升,不利專業農民取得具有經濟規模的整合型農地區塊。缺乏規模經濟的生產方式,很難在自動化設備、資訊系統、品牌與顧客識別系統、研發投入等方面來投資以提升經營效率降低成本或增加附加價值提高售價。經營規模太小導致產值與利潤金額小,使得僱工無法增加,農戶必須承擔複雜多工,知識技術難以複製傳承只能自己埋頭苦幹。又因為動植物生長「不等人」的特性讓農戶農忙時無晝夜、農閒時無收入。與多數工、商、服務業的工作能提供穩定工作時段、薪資、以及具體工作內容相比,我國「過小農」的職場環境的確缺乏吸引力。
五、
低報酬率高風險的市場:
愈接近原料端的一級農產品生產市場,因為從業人員幾無資格門檻且人數多、農場營運狀況無法管理監控,又有天候、疾病、國外競爭等重大變數影響產能,導致產銷價格波動劇烈;一級農產品易腐不耐貯存,比過季的隨身碟和i-Phone價格掉的還快,農戶缺乏惜售的價格談判籌碼,長期易處於低報酬的狀態。
六、
產業內的貧富不均:
消費者為王的態勢明顯。在各式農產品的產業價值鏈裡,愈能掌握銷售通路、接近消費者、從事加工流程與附加服務的人住在都市開賓士吹冷氣;愈是專職生產的人開中華威利小貨卡喝西北風在大太陽底下氣喘吁吁,人均農產年收入只有25萬左右。愈近消費者與服務端,產業內的廠商規模大、家數少、趨近資本密集;愈近生產端,產業內的業者規模小、家戶數多、趨近勞力密集。
七、
農村生活條件不佳:
人類的群聚生活也有規模經濟的特性。當聚落發生人口減少、可支配所得所衍生的消費力降低時,有最低經營門檻限制的多種生活機能產業,例如學校、醫院、便利店、銀行金融、餐飲娛樂、水電瓦斯等公共建設因無法生存而退場,會再加速當地經濟活動的蕭條,形成青壯人口外移與年輕人無意願也無能力生兒育女的不良循環。
八、
遭曲解未被重視的環境污染:
因為需求人口過量與糧食自給率不足的交互影響,佔我國農業生產大宗的慣行業者俱以單位生產極大化為目標,但生產過程中大量耗用的化學肥料、疫苗藥劑所流放的已知與未知環境賀爾蒙;以動物飼養為主所排出的糞便、二氧化碳、甲烷等溫室氣體、含硫與含氨放流水;以水產養殖為主的地下水超抽造成地層下陷與海水侵入鹽化等問題,藉由自然界的水循環、食物鏈的累積、食品殘留等效應,可能是10年內我們就將面臨的挑戰。而身為污染源之一的農業生產對台灣整體生態的影響,變數多短期變化小但有不可逆的大型系統風險,至少需要長期的監控。可惜農業生產區域與都會區的社會精英們相距遙遠,社會大眾大部分對農業還停格在採菊東籬下悠然見南山的清新寫意印象。
九、
種原與專業技術的流失:
農企業的數量與規模不足,民間無力吸納改進種原與專業技術的人力、設備、資金;與基礎研究相關的政府機構法人化,使得農民原可以仰賴的種原與技術來源漸漸偏向短期應用與商品微調改良;以大陸、越南為主的磁吸效應再加上事實上無法源管制,我國農戶與農業專業人員「整廠輸出」至國外發展造成農產品MIT競爭力的迅速衰減,其實是過去完成式與現在進行式。
十、
受到箝制扭曲的價格機制:
看來似乎是媒體主導社會大眾「濫情又理盲的悲憫」,所以當農產品價格上漲,就以影響庶民生計為由對政府施壓迫使價格回跌,農產品價格低落就歸責政府不顧農民生活,順帶再攻訐「中間商剝削」。所以無論農產品價格漲跌,都是媒體關心的對,全是政府的錯。農產品價格在台灣有穩步上揚的空間,首因是食材採購金額佔家戶所得比例甚低,我們苛扣農民所得的錢吃便宜米飯,然後去夜店Room18跳舞狂歡或是買藍光DVD,有違公義與比例原則;許多農產品多年來建立了生產履歷、藥物殘留檢驗、CAS、農場放流水檢驗等制度,農業也應該基於使用者付費的原則開發與使用水源,這些增加公眾利益的活動是優質與安全農業增加的成本,應該也要適度反應在價格。最重要的,農業也是經濟活動的一種,市場的價格誘因是驅動農民從事生產的最重要基礎。價格機制不彰,通常會導致劣幣驅逐良幣與迫使農民進行不合法不道德作業的負面結果。
參、永續農業的政策建議
我們的農業身處在一個全球化的、動態的產業環境。在外部環境方面,有大農國家農產品的價格競爭,與工、商、服務等其它產業的需要共享或分配的資源,以及人類有史以來尚未直接面對的氣候變遷挑戰。產業內部則有許多盤根錯節的產官學網絡與共生關係,與其關連的知識技術體系龐大。改善方案若過度要求嚴謹與完備,恐陷入治絲益棼不良於行的困局。謹應用一些經營管理的方法對前章所述的問題提出改善意見,也許它們不是最好的建議,但希望它們都是有效可用的建議。
一、
權責組織的調整:
農委會是水資源最大的使用單位,因此至少在農業水源的開發、計價、維護,需要具備規劃與決策所需的資源、技術、與人力,而不是僅能配合。也許可以考慮水資源的需求規劃、使用、維護由農委會負責農業用水,經濟部負責工業與民生用水,公共工程委員會發包執行,經建會統籌監控的分工方式。
這樣的策略有二項積極意義:農業是能產生價值的產業,水是原料之一,除了省著用增加經營效率,還有增加開發的需要,將視產業發展而定,而農委會比經濟部更專業;農委會的水公司掌握訂價權,不需受限於自來水公司的盈虧與工業民生用水的整體策略考量,亦即可以在WTO的架構下對稻米等耗水業別合法進行補貼。
另有二項消極意義:農委會要自行負擔開發維護水資源的預算成本,自然就更有成本效益的觀念,節水效果可能比總統宣示或院長道德勸說更佳;經濟部與內政部有組織資源過大之虞,農委會相形之下管轄資源似太小,藉由組織功能的調整,也許略可平衡部會間的權利義務。
二、
生態農業園區的設立:
比照工業區與科學園區的模式,善用農地雖多為私有但部分少量徵收價格低抗拒小的特性,仍能進行水、電、通訊、道路、排污、適當圍籬等基礎建設;服務中心提供租稅、檢驗、認證、人力與農機派遣媒合等服務外,在硬體方面則可望提供技職計日工的休憩住宿、集會處所等;生態產業園區的概念則包含副產品交換、水資源等再利用、污染集中管制等,將耕作、畜牧、堆肥、商品資材倉儲等生產事業單位設定容留面積上限以構成穩定的生態系統。農業園區另一個重要的意義,在於宣告與確立農業是專業工作區域的觀念,有利排除像是休閒農場與鄉村豪宅住戶抗議驅趕養豬場、堆肥場的爭端,讓農友得以專心生產。
三、
平衡式區域發展模式:我們國家近年推動成功的「未來六都」,已經把台灣本島適度區隔出大台北基宜、桃竹苗、中彰投、雲嘉南、高高屏、花東6個生活圈,每個圈內具備農工科技製造生產、商業服務、以及居住的功能。周邊以農業為主的二線、三線城鎮也有需要應用上述的發展模式,引進適度規模的工業與食品加工、屠宰、生技等輕工業,最主要的理由在增加就業人口以提升城鎮發展的規模經濟;農產加工與最終產品愈接近產地,也可以降低比值小(體積大、價格低)的一級農產品運輸里程促進低碳經濟。農業區、工業區、與住宅區的區隔可以有公園、綠帶、林地、人工生態溼地、道路、與河川山坡自然地形等選項,藉以緩衝降低農、工、住區塊間的交叉污染衝擊。
四、
鼓勵垂直整合型的農企業:
直接補貼農民與扶育產銷班的作法,基本上是鼓勵生產與品質的極大化,與消費市場的需求波動與可接受價格不一定契合,所以有產銷失調的風險;合作社的組織型態尚缺加工加值、新產品研發與行銷管理的功能,且稅賦設計還是未脫離補貼的概念。以紐西蘭Zespri、美國Sunkist、荷蘭Topigs等為例的垂直整合型農企業的組織型態,藉企業的營收利潤來支付稅捐與從業人員保險、福利,逐漸將老農年金、農保等社會救濟與社會福利的現行型態轉化為產業內的正常營運成本,調整產業體質;從消費需求,也就是由行銷導向與顧客導向的逆向工程來決定產量與品質品級,讓整個企業與價值鏈的利潤最大化;將位居價格談判劣勢的農夫以股東或其他身分納入消費品銷售利潤的分享體系,有助社會公平;企業型態將工作分工分時分包,有益工時工序波動大的農場工作環境改善,讓農場技職從業人員享有規律的休假、收入,也有機會挑戰不同的工作領域,藉以吸引年輕人從農。至於補助扶育的農企業對象,建議依利潤分配的合理性、產銷風險自負的耐受能力、以及產品服務的國內外競爭力等,作為評估的指標。
五、
農場全面證照登記制:
農企業與位於農業園區的農場已接受較高程度的監理,在上述範圍之外的農場則應強制揭露並定期更新負責人資料、從業人員數、農作物品項、預估產能、出貨價格、庫存、農地使用面積等資訊。農場監理的積極意義是協助政府發展穩定市場供需的預測或示警能力;也能化被動為主動提供農民應具備的技能或資源。監理的消極意義則可展現在維護農產品生產環境及格標準,以及防止土地的超限利用或遭到盜用。
六、
增加農產品市場價格的管理指標:
現行政府單位與社會大眾對農產品價格投注在「絕對值」的關注,例如公糧收購價格每公斤提高3元、某品牌米四公斤包裝米3個月內漲了41元、農糧署緊急標售1.2萬噸公糧讓米價回到每台斤23元的價位… 攪得社會大眾人心惶惶。如果再考慮國人年平均米消費48公斤等於本波漲價一年多付500元、十餘年來國人平均所得由1萬美元突破至2萬美元的客觀事實,這樣大費周章的價格管理對稻農收入影響大,對消費者卻是影響甚微。但扭曲的低廉米價,部分糧商動輒以舊米混新米、進口米混國產米、甚至傳聞以慣行米混有機米的方式求生謀利,社會大眾自以為撿到便宜卻是不折不扣的輸家。良好的農產品價格管理指標,應該能包含呈現國民所得的佔比、價格波動在一定期間的容許區間。除此之外,農產品的重要價值提昇或改善活動:例如生產履歷、認證、防疫管理、電宰、化肥減量、污水與廢棄物處理設施標準化等,也應至少以公示敘述的方式列為市場價格的參考資訊。
七、
國家級的種原科技佈局:
種原與科技的流失與過時通常不是「會不會」,而是「早晚」的問題,處理的範疇可區分為產業結構、流程作業管理、創新投資等三個層面。國內農業體質好農民有飯吃,自然不會笨到買機票把最好的種原技術拿到國外;流程的管理需以農場全面登記為基礎,配合種原科技智慧財產專利或是商品自我防衛功能的保護形成管制。但即是天羅地網,種原市場還是一個持續改良創新的動態競爭環境,如逆水行舟不進則退。囿於動物種原開發動輒5~10年、植物種原10~20年,研究項目分散在多個單位且很難有期中績效報告的特性,這類的長期預算容易遭到各單位的短期績效壓力排擠刪減。如能藉由種原科技計畫總歸戶的觀念確定國家級的預算規模與集權式的管理單位,依照產業的影響層面、種原商品市場國內外規模、所需設備投資門檻、核心技術與專家團隊資源、開發與投資回收期間、成功機率等評估篩選核心的種原計劃,簡單地說就是挑出有特色、會賣錢、民間企業單打獨鬥做不來、對大家有利不會獨厚少數人的項目,找專人來管錢管進度,每年按部就班紮實做。
八、
農鎮發展取代農村發展:農業的生產需要經濟規模。在農業的產業擴散與專業分工的雙重趨勢導引下,現有以直接農民為主的60萬從農人口有機會因加工、資財、生技、行銷、供配、文創等2~6級產業的工作供給擴張至70~80萬的規模,但直接農民亦有機會因為勞力密集的有機農業得以喘息軟著陸但長期將留用至10~15萬人的水準;農地是生財工具也是工作場所,更具備無替代品的稀有特性,地上當然是住宅、馬路等不會賺錢的東西愈少愈好; 提供就業機會多的2~6級產業對土地的需求較低,產程作業密集與廠商群聚對營運通常有利,可以集中設置管理;有品質但價格適中的生活服務更需要規模經濟,所以城市取向的生活型態比現役的農村更宜人居住。因此,與其投注資源在人口將會愈來愈少的農村,也可以提倡農地專業化園區化、工作在農區生活在市區的觀念。在生產方式改變經營效率增加帶動所得上升的前提下,農民增加由住家到農場的交通成本時間,換得家戶成員在食衣住行育樂醫療照護綜合生活品質的提昇。在全台約350個鄉鎮,依東西快速路網、產業群聚綜效、特色農業等指標,聚焦資源扶育50~100個二線三線城鎮為生活機能完備、附加價值產業垂直體系群聚的農業區域中心,相信是國家建設資源合理分配、農業健全發達、農民幸福永續的較佳解決方案。
九、
海外生產:
運用生產管理技術、資本、種原、以及農業系統工程的優勢,向農業低度開發的國家輸出換取農產品穩定的進口來源,理論上可行,實務上則有不得不做的糧食缺口壓力。牽涉到國土與自然資源的事業, 在每個國家都是敏感的政治議題, 免不了都會遇到被強制收回的「國家風險」(例如玻利維亞查維茲的石油國有化命令)。所以內外銷比例、增加當地雇用人口與薪資條件等的締約承諾、在地國的基礎建設投資等, 大概都是必要的. 模式應該會比照石油、礦產的開發,與當地政府或大型企業成立合資公司(joint venture),以農場租用合作20~50年的方式進行海外生產。依我國的外交現況度、生產國的供給意願、還有水利系統建設與運輸處理成本, 大概可依序歸納為大陸、越南、馬來西亞(東馬沙巴/砂勞越),為近期內可以洽商結盟的對象.
十、
農地總量管制與農地自由買賣:人口低度成長甚至負成長是先進國家的現象,也是對我們的母親 - 地球負責任的表現。在這一波金融海嘯仍能維持經濟成長的德國,除了低碳產業發達成功之外,預計在2050年人口由8,200萬緩減為6,500萬,也可借窺出時代的趨勢。我國的人口成長看來亦走在正確的道路,這代表都市城鎮、工業區不需要無限制擴張。藉由國土的整體規劃訂立農地的短、中、長期總量面積成長、品質提升、與污染管制等目標,讓廢棄或低度利用的城鎮、工業區還地於農、還地於林、還地於生態。在總量管制的前提下,國內工業區利用率低又還有立體化的發展空間,所受衝擊小;都會與城鎮的發展則可採用「以地易地」的概念,機關單位企業若使用農地為建築使用,必須補償提供等面積的農地。另外,最令人期待的效益,就是比「小地主大佃農」效力更為直接的農地自由買賣,由市場經濟決定農地的整併與農業經營的規模經濟。當然,這樣新穎的觀念作法,想來需要經過長年凝聚社會共識才得可行。
後 記
能勉力撐著眼皮唸到這裡的讀者,想來若非是人中龍鳳,不然就是英英美代子生活太悠閒了,應該心中會質問這樣的產業文章,跟「科技農企業扶育計畫」有什麼關係?
隱藏在長篇的文字背後,我希望能夠傳遞延伸三條軸線的訊息與理念:
第一個軸線中心顯而易見,是提供產業的觀察與建議,以簡單的邏輯整理起來,提供讀者參考。如果也有政府有關單位的讀友,就更好了。
第二個軸心,是闡述科技‧農‧企業這三者之間密切的依存關係。沒有任何一個產業可以依靠悲憫、同情、補助長期存在,惟有以企業化的經營管理增加包括人才在內的資源使用效率,應用科技提供市場消費者能接受的加值產品服務,國內的農業才有健康發展的未來。幸運的是我們佔了些便宜,有不少大農國家的經驗與其它產業的借鏡,我們農業的成功機會,應該不小。
第三個軸線比較隱喻,是提供從農讀友一個簡易版的策略發展架構。無論是個人農場、產銷班、合作社、還是農企業,我們都需要發展自己的經營策略,因為矇著頭生產最多最好產品就能溫飽、屬於阿公阿嬤時代的好日子已經過去了,我們的事業需要執行什麼做、什麼不做、如何做的許多選擇,這就是企業策略。政策則是政府的策略,第一章「農業非常重要」是列出可能的市場機會,這是策略規劃的第一步,萬一檢討研究起來是沒有機會,就不用再白費功夫了;第二章「台灣農業的主要問題」指的是產業環境的分析,列出問題與值得投入改善的重點;第三章「永續農業的政策建議」就是根據前章的問題重點擬定發展的策略。環境分析與策略制定有很多可用的工具方法,這裡用的是一步接一步的直線邏輯,輔以可行性的排序,愈困難不易達到的排在後面。另外,關於問題與作法的闡述,若能儘量加入客觀與量化的資料,通常說服力較高。
希望來訪的讀者閱畢不會覺得浪費時間,俾有所心得,敬安!
Life
is marvelous and amazing. Twenty-some years ago, I graduated from the
Agri-marketing Department at NCHU and returned home after my military
service. My mother had arranged a job for me at the agricultural association
with a monthly salary of nearly NT$40,000, which was quite generous for a
university student at the time. However, lacking any real grasp of arithmetic,
I chose to work for a car company with a monthly salary just over NT$20,000.
During that time, I had the good fortune to experience everything from the
construction of automotive factories to the development of sales systems, both
domestically and abroad, through the ups and downs of the industry. I
rightfully faced challenges, studying for my MBA at a then-renowned research
institute, broadening my horizons while expressing my concern for public areas
related to automotive energy, manufacturing, transportation, and environmental
sustainability. I originally thought I would spend my life holding a steering
wheel, retiring on four wheels. Unexpectedly, twenty years later, I found
myself back in the agricultural sector as a management consultant.
Transitioning
from the booming industrial zones dominated by rumbling silver mechanical
beasts, to the fiercely competitive retail service industry filled with
colorful lights and sounds, and then returning to the vibrant green world of
agriculture has allowed me to view industry issues from different perspectives.
Especially as I ride the MRT and high-speed rail from Taipei, taking the
elevator to the car rental station, and effortlessly driving my Garmin-Asus
navigation phone to visit farms and agricultural enterprises in villages with
no street addresses, I am often warmly welcomed by a group of nearly
sixty-year-old farmers who, while their children and grandchildren seek
livelihoods and education in urban areas, leave their courtyards empty.
Occasionally, I see indigenous people riding old motorcycles to collect their
paychecks, usually earning less than NT$22,000 a month. In the future, I would
even find that sending a letter is faster than emailing. The internal conflict
I feel is immense—sometimes even suffocating!
Agriculture
is extremely important, yet while the government and the general public say it
is important, honestly, they don’t seem to feel it is very significant. As a
result, agricultural land continues to diminish, and the income of the rural
workforce also decreases. After all, voting with your feet is far more tangible
than voting with your mouth. So, let me apply some urban perspectives, along
with the language of industry experts and investors, to interpret
agriculture—an industry that is both close and far away from the general
public. Perhaps after reading this, everyone will have a different viewpoint.
The
following article will be divided into three chapters: "Agriculture is
Very Important," "Major Issues in Taiwan's Agriculture," and
"Policy Suggestions for Sustainable Agriculture," presenting my
humble opinions for readers’ reference.
I. Agriculture is
Very Important
To say that an
industry contributing only 1.6% of the national GDP is more important than the
optoelectronics or petrochemical industries may seem unreasonable at first
glance. However, from the perspective of three essential factors, agriculture
holds significant value:
- Critical Necessity: Going
without a mobile phone for two years, not driving for five years, not
watching television for ten years, or never attending a concert by Jay
Chou, Jolin Tsai, Tsai Chin, or Fei Yu-ching may indeed affect one’s
quality of life, but the cost of going without food for three days is a
matter of survival. This is self-evident.
- Underestimated Real Costs:
Agricultural production relies on sunlight, water, land, living species,
and air, which are all free because the Earth does not understand the
concepts of technology licensing or intellectual property rights. However,
the actual cost of creating and replicating these resources is immense and
often impossible to achieve. For instance, trying to replicate the fertile
black soil enriched with magnesium silicate that flows down from the
Hehuan Mountain range in the Taoyuan region is a task that even a formidable
businessman like Terry Gou cannot accomplish. While technically feasible,
the cost of replacing bees and butterflies with artificial pollination for
various fruits and vegetables could reach trillion-dollar levels. Even
disregarding the aforementioned "fixed costs" and focusing
solely on the "variable costs" of restoring soil, water, and
ecosystems that have been damaged by industrial, residential, or
agricultural pollution from chemical pesticides, fertilizers, and
livestock waste, the bills we owe to the Earth could elevate agriculture's
contribution to the GDP to a level between 30% and 50%.
- Super Multiplier Effect: New
Zealand's kiwifruit is marketed worldwide under the Zespri brand,
including in the refrigerators of our homes. This business, with an annual
revenue of NT$25 billion, primarily comes from 2,700 farmers cultivating
approximately 12,000 hectares of orchards. The “Taiwan Golden Chicken” we
buy from Song Qing Supermarket, the Valentine's Day packages at five-star
hotels costing thousands of NT$, McDonald's, the flower sea tour at the
Four Seas Travel, bamboo charcoal cotton underwear we wear, the genuine leather
sofa from Lorenzo purchased at a discount from the New York Metropolitan
Furniture Center, the Lux soap and Chunfeng toilet paper in our bathrooms,
the textbooks printed with materials from Zhonghua Paper and Zhongxing
Paper in our children's backpacks, goose feathers on badminton
shuttlecocks, the rabbit fur in the designated Mizuno baseballs for the
Chinese Professional Baseball League, or the four Maxxis tires on my car
made from natural rubber, the deep-sea fish collagen that makes Lin Yue-yun
and Hou Pei-tsen look like sisters, and many perfume formulas requiring
geranium oil (which we can find in flower markets as mosquito-repelling
plants), or the chicken embryo protein carrier necessary for producing flu
vaccines at Kuo Guang Biochemical, or even the chemotherapy drugs
extracted from Pacific yew tree bark used to treat breast cancer, ovarian
cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and prostate cancer—all of these are
value-added businesses, services, and industries based on agricultural raw
materials. From the perspective of value diffusion, we can say that food,
restaurants, fresh markets, furniture and home décor, and tourism are all
parts of a broader "agriculture." We can also analyze the
industry from a vertical perspective of upstream and downstream product
manufacturing processes, revealing that agriculture is the mother of most
industrial and commercial sectors.
The next time you
meet friends in agriculture, forestry, fishery, or animal husbandry, I believe
you will sincerely appreciate and thank them for the importance of their work.
^_^
II. Major Issues
in Taiwanese Agriculture
The annotation "instability amid
scarcity" in the Council of Agriculture's policy plan succinctly
highlights the significant systemic risk posed by our food self-sufficiency
rate of only 32% (calculated based on caloric weight). The main reasons for
this "instability amid scarcity," according to their logic and
importance, can be summarized as follows:
- Water Scarcity:
In our country, the distribution of water resources is approximately 70%
for agriculture, 20% for domestic use, and 10% for industry. The
prioritization of water quality requirements is in the order of domestic
use > agriculture > industry, with only the manufacturing sector
capable of recycling wastewater. In terms of investment in water sources
and the influence of water pricing, the hierarchy is domestic use >
industry > agriculture, indicating that agriculture is often excluded
from the decision-making circles regarding water resource development and
major supply systems. Long-term low water prices, designed to quickly
satisfy the expectations of various central and local election
constituents and interest groups, have resulted in stagnant investment in
the maintenance and development of water resources. Necessary projects
like dredging reservoirs, which require hundreds of billions of NT$,
remain unexecuted, with 16 out of the 33 existing reservoirs in Taiwan
having sedimentation rates exceeding 30%. The water supply gap due to
insufficient investment, combined with a domestic water crisis that
governments at all levels cannot manage, leads to the most immediate
solution: converting low-value rice paddies to dryland crops or allowing
them to go fallow. Furthermore, due to considerations of tax revenue and
local employment opportunities, the proliferation of science parks
gradually displaces agricultural water usage, and the resulting wastewater
discharge further impacts local agricultural production. Farmers, who lack
the power to voice their concerns, turn to groundwater when surface water
is unavailable, leading to more severe land subsidence and soil
salinization issues.
- Reduction of Arable Land:
We currently have 820,000 hectares of arable land. If we consider an ideal
scenario where one hectare produces 5 tons of crops, we cannot even meet
the local livestock industry's annual demand of 5 million tons of corn.
Yet, arable land continues to decrease at a rate of 5% to 10% per year.
Fallowing due to "production and sales adjustment,"
"insufficient market competitiveness," and water scarcity
visibly reduces agricultural land. Over the past twenty years, numerous
science parks, highways, rapid transit networks, high-speed rail station
areas, and suburban redevelopment projects in large metropolitan cities
have silently devoured farmland. Especially in light of the economic
downturn and slowed population growth, these land-eating plans warrant
close scrutiny. Additionally, the encroachment of leisure and tourism
industries and luxury residences into agricultural areas results in low
utilization or pollution of farmland, which is also concerning.
- Changing Dietary Habits:
With increasing incomes leading to demands for delicious, quick,
convenient, and healthy food, the consumption of meat, eggs, seafood,
vegetables, and fruits in Taiwan can maintain over 80% self-sufficiency.
However, grain consumption has shifted from rice to a preference for
flour-based foods, with rice cultivation, which had competitive production
capabilities, declining by over 50% in the past 30 years to just 220,000
hectares. Wheat, as well as the corn and soybeans needed for livestock
feed, must be imported, while domestic sugar production has shifted to
imports, totaling nearly 9 million tons annually. Over 70% of dairy
products also rely on imports. Thus, the diversified and Westernized
dietary habits are one of the main factors contributing to the low
self-sufficiency rate of food.
- Lack of Competitive Production Methods:
Originally aimed at preventing improper use of farmland, restrictions on
the transfer and inheritance of agricultural land have led, on one hand,
to local governments and other central agencies creating loopholes that
result in a reduction of farmland; on the other hand, the number of
generations and individuals inheriting farmland continues to rise, leaving
farmers with an average of only 1.3 hectares of farmland each (equivalent
to a square of about 115 meters, which an adult can run around in less than
1.5 minutes). The complexity of farmland transactions makes it difficult
for professional farmers to acquire economically scaled integrated land
parcels. Lacking economies of scale, production methods struggle to invest
in automation equipment, information systems, brand and customer
identification systems, and R&D, hindering efforts to improve
operational efficiency, reduce costs, or increase added value and selling
prices. The small operational scale leads to low output and profit
margins, preventing farmers from hiring more workers. As a result, they
must take on multiple complex tasks, and the technical knowledge is
difficult to replicate or pass on, forcing them to labor intensively.
Additionally, due to the nature of plant and animal growth being "unrelenting,"
farmers often work day and night during busy seasons without income during
downtime. Compared to most jobs in industry, commerce, and services that
offer stable working hours, wages, and specific job duties, the working
environment of "small-scale farmers" is indeed unattractive.
- Low Returns and High Risks in the Market:
The production market for primary agricultural products, which is closer
to the raw material end, experiences intense fluctuations in supply and
pricing due to a lack of entry barriers and management oversight for
operators. Major variables like weather, diseases, and foreign competition
significantly affect production capacity. Perishable primary agricultural
products are more susceptible to price drops than outdated electronics,
and farmers lack the negotiating power to retain selling prices, leading them
to remain in a state of low returns for extended periods.
- Wealth Inequality within the Industry:
The consumer-driven mentality is evident. In the value chain of various
agricultural products, those who can control sales channels, connect with
consumers, and engage in processing and value-added services live in
cities driving luxury cars and enjoying air conditioning. In contrast,
producers labor under the scorching sun in small trucks and earn around
NT$250,000 annually. The closer businesses are to consumers and services,
the larger their scale and fewer their numbers, leaning toward
capital-intensive operations. Conversely, those at the production end tend
to be smaller in scale, with many household operators leaning toward
labor-intensive practices.
- Poor Living Conditions in Rural Areas:
Human settlement patterns also exhibit economies of scale. When population
decline and reduced disposable income diminish consumer purchasing power,
various essential service industries with minimum operational
thresholds—such as schools, hospitals, convenience stores, banks,
restaurants, entertainment venues, and public utilities—face unsustainable
pressures and may exit the market, exacerbating local economic downturns.
This creates a negative cycle of young adults migrating away and a
reluctance or inability among youth to bear children.
- Misunderstood and Overlooked Environmental Pollution:
The interplay between excessive population demand and inadequate food
self-sufficiency has led the majority of conventional agricultural
operators, who dominate our agricultural production, to pursue maximum
unit production. However, the significant amounts of chemical fertilizers
and vaccines used in the production process release known and unknown
environmental hormones. The waste generated from animal husbandry produces
feces, carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, as well as
sulfur and ammonia-laden wastewater. Additionally, over-extraction of
groundwater for aquaculture causes land subsidence and saltwater
intrusion. Through the natural water cycle, accumulation in the food
chain, and residual effects on food, these issues may pose challenges we
could face within ten years. As one of the sources of pollution,
agricultural production's impact on Taiwan's overall ecology presents many
variables with minimal short-term fluctuations but significant
irreversible systemic risks, requiring long-term monitoring.
Unfortunately, the agricultural production areas are distanced from urban
elites, and much of society still views agriculture through a romanticized
lens, reminiscent of picking chrysanthemums under the eastern fence and
leisurely gazing at the southern mountains.
- Loss of Seed Varieties and Professional Skills:
The number and scale of agricultural enterprises are insufficient, with
the private sector unable to absorb the manpower, equipment, and capital
needed to improve seed varieties and professional skills. The
institutionalization of government agencies related to fundamental
research has led to a gradual shift away from the reliable sources of
seeds and techniques that farmers once depended on, favoring short-term
applications and minor commercial adjustments instead. The magnetic effect
of mainland China and Vietnam, coupled with the inability to control the
outflow of resources, has resulted in Taiwan's farmers and agricultural
professionals "exporting entire operations" abroad, leading to a
rapid decline in the competitiveness of Taiwanese agricultural products.
This scenario reflects both past successes and present realities.
- Distorted Price Mechanisms Under Constraint:
It seems that media-driven public sentiment reflects a "sentimental
yet irrational compassion." Therefore, when agricultural product
prices rise, the government faces pressure to lower prices under the guise
of protecting livelihoods. Conversely, when agricultural prices drop, the
government is blamed for neglecting farmers' lives, also inciting
criticism of "middlemen exploitation." Regardless of
fluctuations in agricultural product prices, the media consistently
attributes responsibility to the government. Agricultural prices in Taiwan
have room for gradual increases, primarily because the proportion of food
procurement expenditures to household income is relatively low. We
excessively cut farmers' incomes to buy cheap rice and then spend on
nightlife or buy Blu-ray DVDs, violating principles of fairness and
proportionality. Many agricultural products have established production
histories, drug residue inspections, CAS certifications, and farm
wastewater inspections over the years. Agriculture should also develop and
utilize water resources based on the principle of user pays, as these
activities increase public benefits and are part of the higher costs
associated with quality and safe agriculture. Most importantly,
agriculture is also an economic activity, and market price incentives are
the foundation driving farmers to produce. When price mechanisms fail, it
typically leads to the phenomenon of bad money driving out good and forces
farmers into illegal and unethical operations.
III. Policy
Recommendations for Sustainable Agriculture
Our agriculture
operates within a globalized and dynamic industrial environment. Externally, we
face price competition from agricultural products in large agricultural
countries, the need to share or allocate resources with other industries such
as labor, commerce, and services, and the unprecedented challenge of climate
change. Internally, there are numerous intertwined networks and symbiotic
relationships among government, industry, and academia, accompanied by a vast
knowledge and technology system. If improvement proposals demand excessive
rigor and completeness, we risk falling into the trap of "tying the
strands and entangling the threads," hindering practical action. We will
cautiously apply some management methods to propose improvements to the issues
mentioned in the previous chapter. They may not be the best suggestions, but we
hope they will all be practical and applicable.
- Adjustment of Authority and Responsibility
Organization:
The Council of Agriculture is the largest user of water resources.
Therefore, at least in terms of agricultural water source development,
pricing, and maintenance, it must possess the resources, technology, and
personnel necessary for planning and decision-making, rather than merely
being compliant. Consideration could be given to a division of
responsibility where the Council of Agriculture is responsible for
agricultural water needs planning, the Ministry of Economic Affairs
handles industrial and domestic water, the Public Works Committee oversees
implementation, and the National Development Council coordinates and
monitors.
This strategy has
two positive implications: Agriculture is a value-generating industry, and
water is one of its raw materials. In addition to saving costs to increase
operational efficiency, there is a need to increase development based on
industrial growth, which the Council of Agriculture is more specialized in than
the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The Council of Agriculture's water company
holds pricing power and is not limited by the profit and loss considerations of
water supply companies or the overall strategy for industrial and domestic
water, which means it can legally subsidize water-intensive industries like
rice under the WTO framework.
There are also
two negative implications: The Council of Agriculture must bear the budget
costs for developing and maintaining water resources, which naturally fosters a
greater awareness of cost-effectiveness. The effects of water conservation may
be better than presidential declarations or the moral persuasion of the
premier; the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of the Interior have
concerns over excessive organizational resources, while the Council of
Agriculture may appear to have too limited jurisdiction. Through organizational
functional adjustments, we may slightly balance the rights and obligations
among ministries.
- Establishment of Ecological Agricultural Parks:
Similar to industrial parks and science parks, utilizing agricultural
land—which is often privately owned but can be acquired at low resistance
rates—allows for basic infrastructure development such as water,
electricity, communication, roads, sewage, and appropriate fencing.
Service centers could provide services such as tax, inspection,
certification, manpower, and agricultural machinery dispatch; in terms of
hardware, we expect to offer rest and accommodation for skilled laborers
and venues for gatherings. The concept of ecological industry parks
includes by-product exchanges, water resource reuse, and concentrated
pollution control, setting limits on the reserved area for production
units like farming, animal husbandry, composting, and material storage to
create a stable ecosystem. Another significant meaning of agricultural
parks is to declare and establish agriculture as a professional working
area, which helps eliminate disputes caused by residents of leisure farms
and rural luxury homes protesting against pig farms and composting sites,
allowing farmers to focus on production.
- Balanced Regional Development Model:
In recent years, our country has successfully promoted the "Future
Six Metropolitan Areas," appropriately segmenting Taiwan into six
living circles: Greater Taipei, Taoyuan-Hsinchu-Miaoli, Central Taiwan,
Yunlin-Chiayi-Tainan, Kaohsiung-Pingtung, and Hualien-Taitung. Each circle
contains functions for agricultural and industrial technology
manufacturing, commercial services, and residential areas. Surrounding
second- and third-tier towns primarily based on agriculture also need to
adopt the aforementioned development model, introducing moderately sized
industries and light industries such as food processing, slaughtering, and
biotechnology to significantly increase employment and scale economic
development. The closer agricultural processing and final products are to
their production sites, the less transportation distance is needed for
bulk agricultural products (which are typically large and low-priced),
promoting a low-carbon economy. The separation of agricultural areas,
industrial areas, and residential areas can include parks, green belts,
forests, artificial ecological wetlands, roads, and natural terrain
features like rivers and hills, buffering and reducing the cross-pollution
impacts among agricultural, industrial, and residential zones.
- Encouraging Vertically Integrated Agricultural
Enterprises:
Directly subsidizing farmers and nurturing production and marketing teams
primarily encourages maximization of production and quality, but may not
align with fluctuations in consumer market demand and acceptable prices,
thus risking production-marketing imbalances. The organizational model of
cooperatives lacks functions for processing value addition, new product
development, and marketing management, and tax designs still cling to the
concept of subsidies. Vertically integrated agricultural enterprises like
New Zealand's Zespri, America's Sunkist, and the Netherlands' Topigs
leverage enterprise revenue to cover taxes, insurance, and employee
benefits, gradually transforming current social relief and welfare systems
like old-age pensions and agricultural insurance into normal operating
costs within the industry, adjusting the industrial structure. From a
consumer demand perspective, production volume and quality levels can be
determined through marketing and customer-oriented reverse engineering,
maximizing profits across the entire enterprise and value chain. Farmers,
who are at a disadvantage in price negotiations, can be included in the
profit-sharing system of consumer product sales as shareholders or in
other capacities, promoting social equity. The enterprise model will also
involve time and task-based subcontracting, benefiting the improvement of
farm working environments, allowing agricultural technicians to enjoy
regular time off and income, and providing opportunities to challenge
different work areas, attracting young people to agriculture. Regarding
the types of agricultural enterprises to be subsidized and nurtured, it is
suggested to evaluate based on the rationality of profit distribution, the
capacity for assuming production and marketing risks, and the
competitiveness of product services both domestically and internationally.
- Comprehensive Licensing Registration System for
Farms:
Agricultural enterprises and farms located in agricultural parks are
already under higher levels of supervision; therefore, farms outside this
scope should be required to disclose and regularly update information
regarding responsible persons, the number of employees, types of crops,
estimated production capacity, shipment prices, inventory, and land usage
area. The proactive significance of farm supervision is to assist the
government in developing stable market supply and demand forecasting or
early warning capabilities; it can also transform passive assistance into
proactive provision of the skills and resources that farmers should
possess. The passive significance of supervision can be manifested in
maintaining agricultural production environmental standards and preventing
excessive or illegal use of land.
- Increasing Management Indicators for Agricultural
Product Market Prices:
Current government agencies and the public focus on the "absolute
value" of agricultural product prices, such as the procurement price
of public grains increasing by NT$3 per kilogram, a certain brand of rice
increasing by NT$41 within three months, or the Council of Agriculture
urgently auctioning 12,000 tons of public grains to return rice prices to
NT$23 per catty... causing public anxiety. If we also consider the
objective fact that the average annual rice consumption per person in
Taiwan is 48 kilograms, equating to an extra NT$500 spent over the past
year of price increases, and the average income of Taiwanese people has
risen from NT$10,000 to NT$20,000 over the past decade, this elaborate
price management has a significant impact on rice farmers' income but
minimal effect on consumers. However, the distorted low rice prices lead
some grain merchants to mix old rice with new rice, imported rice with
domestic rice, or even rumored mixing of conventional rice with organic
rice to survive and profit, misleading the public into thinking they are
getting a bargain while they are, in fact, losing out. A good management
indicator for agricultural product prices should encompass the proportion
of national income, and the allowable price fluctuation range over a
certain period. In addition, significant value enhancement or improvement
activities for agricultural products—such as production traceability,
certification, epidemic prevention management, electric slaughtering,
fertilizer reduction, and standardized wastewater and waste treatment
facilities—should at least be included as reference information for market
pricing in a publicized manner.
- National-level Seed Technology Layout:
The loss and obsolescence of seed technology are not a matter of
"whether" but rather "when." The areas to address can
be categorized into three levels: industrial structure, process operation
management, and innovative investment. When domestic agriculture is
healthy, farmers have food to eat, and naturally, they won’t be foolish
enough to buy plane tickets to bring the best seed technology abroad.
Process management must be based on comprehensive farm registration,
combined with the protection of intellectual property patents for seed
technology or self-defense functions for products. However, even with
stringent regulations, the seed market remains a continuously improving
and innovative dynamic competitive environment—if one does not advance,
they will regress. Given that developing animal seeds can take 5 to 10
years and plant seeds 10 to 20 years, with research projects dispersed
across multiple units and often lacking mid-term performance reports, such
long-term budgets are easily squeezed or cut by the short-term performance
pressures of various units. If we can determine the national budget scale
and centralized management units through the concept of total seed
technology planning, evaluating core seed projects based on industry
impact, the domestic and international scale of seed product markets,
required equipment investment thresholds, core technology and expert team
resources, development and investment payback periods, and success
probabilities, we can simply select distinctive projects that are
profitable, beyond the capabilities of private enterprises, and beneficial
to all rather than a few, assigning professionals to manage funding and
progress, working systematically each year.
- Development of Agricultural Towns Instead of Rural Development:
Agricultural
production requires economies of scale. Under the dual trends of industrial
diffusion and specialized division of labor in agriculture, the existing
600,000 agricultural workers, primarily consisting of direct farmers, have the
opportunity to expand their job supply through secondary to sixth-level
industries such as processing, capital goods, biotechnology, marketing, supply
distribution, and cultural creativity, potentially reaching 700,000 to 800,000
jobs. However, direct farmers may find relief and a soft landing due to
labor-intensive organic farming, but the long-term workforce will likely
stabilize at around 100,000 to 150,000 people. Agricultural land serves as both
a tool for wealth creation and a workplace, possessing irreplaceable and rare
characteristics; thus, it is preferable to minimize non-revenue-generating
developments such as housing and roads on this land. Industries from the second
to sixth level that provide numerous employment opportunities have lower land
demands. Intensive production processes and industry clustering usually favor
operations, allowing for centralized management. Moreover, quality yet
reasonably priced lifestyle services require economies of scale, making
urban-oriented living more appealing than the current rural settings.
Therefore, rather
than investing resources in increasingly depopulated rural areas, we can
promote the concepts of professional agricultural zones and living in urban
areas while working in rural regions. With changes in production methods
increasing operational efficiency, resulting in higher incomes, farmers may
increase their commuting costs and time from home to farm in exchange for
improvements in overall quality of life in areas such as food, clothing,
shelter, transportation, education, entertainment, and healthcare. In Taiwan's
approximately 350 townships, focusing resources to nurture 50 to 100 second-
and third-tier towns with complete living functions and vertically integrated
value-added industry clusters, based on indicators such as the east-west
expressway network, industrial clustering synergy, and specialty agriculture,
is believed to be a better solution for rational resource allocation in
national construction, healthy agricultural development, and sustainable
happiness for farmers.
9.
Overseas Production:
By leveraging
advantages in production management technology, capital, seed sources, and
agricultural systems engineering, it is theoretically feasible to export to
low-developed agricultural countries in exchange for stable import sources of
agricultural products. However, practically, this is driven by the unavoidable
pressure of food supply gaps. Projects involving land and natural resources are
sensitive political issues in every country and often face "national
risks," such as forced expropriation (for example, Bolivia's
nationalization of oil under Chávez). Therefore, commitments regarding the
proportion of domestic and foreign sales, increasing local employment and wage
conditions, and investments in local infrastructure are generally necessary.
The model should resemble the development of oil and minerals, forming joint
ventures with local governments or large enterprises to conduct overseas
production through 20 to 50-year lease agreements for farms. Based on our
current diplomatic situation, the willingness of producing countries to supply,
and the costs of water infrastructure and transportation, we can likely
identify mainland China, Vietnam, and Malaysia (East Malaysia, Sabah/Sarawak)
as potential partners for recent negotiations and alliances.
10.Total
Control of Agricultural Land and Free Trade of Agricultural Land:
Low or even
negative population growth is a phenomenon in advanced countries and reflects a
responsible attitude towards our mother—Earth. In Germany, which has managed to
maintain economic growth even during this financial crisis, it is clear that
beyond their successful development of low-carbon industries, they are expected
to see their population decrease from 82 million to 65 million by 2050,
reflecting the trends of the times. Taiwan's population growth also appears to
be on the right track, indicating that urban towns and industrial areas do not
need to expand indefinitely. By establishing short-, medium-, and long-term
goals for total agricultural land area growth, quality improvement, and
pollution control through overall national planning, we can return abandoned or
underutilized urban and industrial areas to agriculture, forestry, and ecology.
Under the premise of total control, domestic industrial areas have low
utilization rates and still possess vertical development space, which minimizes
impact; urban and town development can adopt the concept of "land
exchange," where organizations and enterprises using agricultural land for
construction must compensate by providing an equal area of agricultural land.
Furthermore, the
most anticipated benefit is the more direct effect of free trade in
agricultural land compared to the "small landowners and large
tenants" model, allowing the market economy to determine the consolidation
of agricultural land and the scale of agricultural operations. Of course, such
innovative concepts will likely require years of building social consensus
before they can be implemented.
Postscript
For readers who
can manage to keep their eyes open until this point, it seems likely that you
are either extraordinary individuals or living a leisurely life. You might be
questioning what this industry article has to do with the "Technology and
Agriculture Enterprise Development Program."
Hidden behind the
lengthy text, I hope to convey three main messages and ideas along three axes:
1.
The first axis is obviously to provide
observations and suggestions for the industry, organized with simple logic for
readers' reference. It would be even better if there are readers from relevant
government agencies.
2.
The second axis illustrates the close
interdependence between technology, agriculture, and enterprises. No industry
can rely on pity, sympathy, or subsidies to survive long-term; only by
increasing resource utilization efficiency, including talent, through corporate
management, and applying technology to provide value-added products and
services acceptable to market consumers can domestic agriculture have a healthy
future. Fortunately, we have the advantage of benefiting from the experiences
of many large agricultural countries and other industries, so our chances of
success in agriculture should be considerable.
3.
The third axis is more metaphorical,
providing agricultural readers with a simple strategic development framework.
Whether for individual farms, production and marketing teams, cooperatives, or
agricultural enterprises, we all need to develop our management strategies. The
days of blindly producing the best products to make ends meet, reminiscent of
our grandparents’ time, are long gone. Our businesses require many choices
regarding what to do, what not to do, and how to do it—that's business
strategy. Policies are the strategies of the government. Chapter one,
"Agriculture is Very Important," lists potential market
opportunities, which is the first step in strategic planning; if research shows
no opportunities, there is no need to waste further effort. Chapter two,
"Major Issues in Taiwanese Agriculture," analyzes the industrial
environment, listing issues and key areas worth investing in for improvement.
Chapter three, "Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Agriculture,"
outlines development strategies based on the problem highlights from the
previous chapter. There are many tools and methods available for environmental
analysis and strategy formulation; here, we use a straightforward linear logic
approach, complemented by feasibility ranking, placing more
difficult-to-achieve items later. Additionally, regarding the discussion of
issues and solutions, incorporating as much objective and quantitative data as
possible usually enhances persuasiveness.
Sincerely I hope
visiting readers do not feel their time was wasted after reading and find some
insights. Best wishes!
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