近月來國際油價仍然持續在高檔居高不下，除了衝破每桶70美元天價之外，更有證券投資分析業者大膽喊出油價將破每桶100美元的恐怖警告。在另一方面，溫室效應引發的全球氣象異變，接連重創許多國家的經濟建設與人民生命財產。而在台灣地區，動力汽機車輛的使用是石油消耗的超級大戶，同時也是溫室效應氣體排放的首要污染源之一。因此應對石油價格攀高的國際能源市場與執行溫室效應氣體排放減量，政府的環保政策與動力車輛業者的產品發展政策存在著緊密依存的互動關係。
兩造若有良性的互動，可以預見空氣污染減量、動力車輛的單價與利潤提升、換購市場規模擴大，以及帶動金屬塑膠等資源回收、甚至中古車外銷低度開發中國家等環保經濟事業發展；兩造如果衝突對抗，結局通常就是嚴苛的牌照總量限制或是生產組裝的特許經營，社會大眾必須犧牲行的自由便利、動力車輛產業規模縮減遲滯經濟發展，以及伴隨管制政策而來的黑市交易與貪污收賄等問題。
筆者在國內外汽車產業服務十餘年，冀以棉薄的知識經驗，謹藉貴刊一角為我國與動力車輛產業相關的能源與環保政策建言。
我國與世界各國目前面臨的最大問題，是石油存量的枯竭，而替代能源的商轉技術無法適時銜接。石油枯竭問題異常嚴重 有下列背景因素：
1. 石油產業在十幾年前的產能規劃，未能預測中國大陸與印度兩個超級工業體的崛起。意即需求端失衡。
2. 全球已近三年未有新油田(未達經濟規模的小油井不計)開採成功。即供給端失衡。
3. 第一大產油國沙烏地阿拉伯虛報石油存量。其油井原油的平均滲水率在25%以上，但隱匿未計。
4. 第二大產油國伊拉克在美伊戰爭中自毀油田二百餘座。
5. 因此石油存量的可用年限由原估的卅餘年大幅縮短十年以上。許多國家的能源政策應變不及；另外，替代能源的商轉以替代石化產業的時程可能出現真空。這是本次石油危機的背景。
6. 高油價是「果」，屬於次要問題。石油枯竭是「因」，屬於主要問題。
若說環境保護是人類永續生存的課題，則石油枯竭是有關人類生存的即時危機，在處理的急迫性應優於溫室效應氣體以及其他有害氣體減量的環保議題。將資源枯竭與溫室效應的影響層面與急切程度綜合考慮，對於動力車輛使用的能源議題設定與其處理的順序，應如下述，似乎比較妥當：
1. 天然氣(CNG)燃料取代汽油，其要點為：
a.
天然氣目前可開採的全球存量年限還在一百年以上。
b.
動力車輛由汽油改用天然氣，沒有技術障礙，只有每車達數萬元的改裝成本障礙。
c.
加氣站普設不易。政府應轉為考慮推動公共汽車與計程車輛全面使用天然氣燃料。
d.
天然氣燃燒產生的CO2約當汽油燃燒，對減緩溫室效應沒有助益。
e.
天然氣(CNG)與液化石油氣(LPG)完全不同。後者是石油煉製的副產品之一、比空氣重。推廣液化石油氣(LPG)作為動力車輛燃料，對減少石油能源的依賴，幾乎沒有幫助。
2. 柴油取代汽油：
a.
每單位體積的柴油可驅動車輛的行駛里程高出汽油約20%，間接降低我國石油消耗總量。
b.
每單位柴油價格比汽油低，構成使用者的誘因，有利政策推動。
c.
每單位柴油燃燒產生的CO2比汽油低。
d.
在石油的煉製過程中，如果增加柴油的生產比例、降低汽油的生產比例，則生產端的CO2排放總量亦降低。
e.
因此政府應積極鼓勵柴油車輛取代汽油車輛。
f.
目前最大的障礙，在於中油與台塑僅能供應含硫量50ppm的低硫柴油。而新世代配備特殊柴油專用觸媒轉化器的柴油引擎，可以通過國內外最嚴格的空污排放標準，但需使用30ppm低硫柴油或10ppm以下的低硫柴油。
g.
第二個障礙：政府為保護國內汽車組裝產業與維繫與日本關係等政治考量，對以歐盟業者為主的柴油車輛進口，採用積極不作為的方式因應。
3. Hybrid混合動力車輛：
a. Hybrid的關鍵技術有二：一是不同動力間的切換。Hybrid技術目前最純熟的Toyota Prius，其油電動力切換時間為500毫秒。改良自第一代Prius系統的Ford Escape，則宣稱已達400毫秒。皆已達到「成熟商品化」的嚴格消費者使用要求。但其他業者，包括我國工研院等，還在努力克服技術問題。另外 ，這類的切換系統還有重要的成本障礙。
b. 二是大家熟知的電池效率。與上項同，可說已克服技術障礙但尚未跨越成本障礙。以Prius為例，在美國售價2萬1千美元，約合新台幣60萬元，其Hybrid系統上的鎳氫電池售價則為20萬元，佔車價比例高達30%以上。另外 Hybrid車輛使用精密的微電流充放控制系統以克服鎳氫電池約7%電池記憶衰敗效應的問題，但Hybrid車輛還缺乏在道路環境嚴酷的國家地區使用超過十年的實際使用試驗。昂貴的車用鎳氫電池是否還有更可觀的售後服務保固成本，以及處理大量鎳氫電池廢棄物是否引發二次污染等，現在還缺乏可信賴的數據資料以供評估。
c. 所以說有了良好的天然氣政策與柴油政策，正好提供了Hybrid廠商研發關鍵零組件成本合理化與產品品質風險控管的重要緩衝時間，使我國獲得綜效更大。
d. Hybrid的關鍵價值，除了低油耗與低污染外，一般的學者專家較易忽略的是其技術的擴張潛力。Hybrid可以是汽油/電混合，當然也可以應用為柴油/電混合、天然氣/電混合、氫內燃機/電混合等……
e. Hybrid車輛依目前進口關稅與貨物稅的課徵規則計算，市場售價在150萬元左右，屬於高級豪華車的售價，市場普及率低，對全國的節約能源與降低污染幫助相當有限。
f. 執Hybrid技術牛耳的Toyota與Honda二家國際車廠由於Hybrid研發投資成本高、但Hybrid車輛產銷規模小，事實上相當樂於出售Hybrid技術藉以分擔其內部成本。我國政府可考慮鼓勵Hybrid等極低污染車輛來台組裝生產，搭配關鍵技術移轉予工研院、極低污染車輛特別租稅優惠等配套措施，讓Hybrid車輛售價在100萬元以下，達成市場普及，並帶動國內重要產業技術升級。
4. 生物質燃料:
a. 利用玉米、大豆等可循環再生的植物製作提煉甲醇或生質柴油(Bio-diesel)等燃料，可以取代石化燃料。
b. 這些生物質燃料由原料生產、提煉到運送，理論上都可以為人工技術精密控制(如基因改造等)，使得燃料純化程度很高，能大量降低燃燒產生的污染。
c. 但是生物質燃料在原料生產與提煉的過程要消耗大量能源。資源的浪費又是另一個環保的課題。
5. 深海甲烷：
a. 目前已知在多處深海海溝底部或海床，蘊藏豐富的甲烷。有能源業者籲為在五十年前石油取代鯨油之後，深海甲烷可望取代枯竭的石油，是能源產業的明日之星。
b. 動力車輛由石油燃料改用甲烷，沒有技術障礙，只有改裝的成本障礙。
c. 目前的工業技術與機具無法克服深海高壓與洋流衝擊等重要問題。尚無能源業者可提供商業開採的預估時程。
d. 建議政府可考慮與國外能源業者合作，並投資深海開採技術之基本研究，以期能掌握該能源的來源與關鍵技術。
e. 我國的左方海域為大陸棚，右方則為太平洋深海區域，應依國際公法與慣例積極主張二百浬經濟海域等海權，鞏固並持有深海資源的管轄權與使用權。我國有機會在未來由能源輸入國成為能源輸出國。
6. 氫燃料電池車:
a. 氫這個近乎零污染的能源，由生產、運送、儲存到零售通路，都牽涉到國家基礎建設的大規模投資。這些改變動輒需要數十年才能完成，所以延長石油與其他能源的使用年限，變得非常重要。
b. 目前生產氫的耗能約與氫所能產生的電能相當，再加上氫能源產業必需的貯存與運送成本，牽涉大量的資源浪費。因此，低耗能生產氫的技術 才是氫燃料電池車普及的關鍵。
c. 氫的貯存與運送，拜合金儲氫技術之賜，已無安全上的問題。因為合金儲氫與放氫的化學反應，都有最佳工作溫度的限制。意即合金貯氣瓶遭破壞引爆時，溫度越高，放氫越少反而無法繼續燃燒，沒有傳統高壓儲氫鋼瓶爆炸的疑慮。 另外，合金儲氫技術近年在成本售價上有大幅度的進步，看來氫的貯存與運送問題不大。
7. 完全電池動力車輛：
a. 如果氫燃料電池的開發技術持續領先電池的開發技術，則會降低完全電池動力車輛開發的急迫性。
b. 完全電池動力車輛的利基在於使用者端零污染，比氫燃料電池的超低污染(其放電時仍排出水與無效熱能)更佳。另外，純電力能源產業會淘汰加油站與加氣站等設施機構。理論上，對於城市景觀與公共安全等有正面影響。
c. 完全電池動力車輛會大幅減少簡化車輛的傳動、懸吊與轉向機件， 造成車輛產業的體質革命。
d. 因其關鍵技術障礙尚未突破，目前僅適合作為學術研究議題，在公共議題討論稍嫌太早。
以上，祈讀者可一窺與動力車輛相關的能源、環保與科技環境的現在與未來。 若能向立法或行政有關單位傳達正確完整的訊息，以利優質政策的擬定實施，則實為動力車輛產業之福。
《本文刊登於車輛工業月刊144期》
In recent months, international oil
prices have remained at high levels, not only surpassing the sky-high mark of
USD 70 per barrel but also prompting some securities analysts to boldly predict
a staggering price of USD 100 per barrel. Meanwhile, the greenhouse effect has
triggered global climate anomalies, causing severe damage to economic
infrastructure and the lives and property of people in many countries. In
Taiwan, powered vehicles are major consumers of petroleum and significant
sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, as we face rising oil prices in
the international energy market and the need to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, there exists a closely interdependent relationship between the
government’s environmental policies and the product development strategies of
the powered vehicle industry.
If both parties interact positively,
this could lead to air pollution reduction, increased unit prices and profits
for powered vehicles, expansion of the replacement market, and the growth of
environmentally sustainable industries such as metal and plastic recycling and
even the export of used vehicles to developing countries. However, if there is
conflict, the outcome could likely involve stringent license caps or restricted
production and assembly, resulting in a loss of transportation convenience for
the public, a reduction in the scale of the powered vehicle industry, slowed
economic growth, and the emergence of issues like black market transactions and
corruption alongside regulatory policies.
Having served in the automotive
industry for over a decade domestically and abroad, I offer my modest knowledge
and experience through this publication as suggestions for Taiwan’s energy and
environmental policies related to the powered vehicle industry.
The greatest challenge currently faced by Taiwan and countries worldwide
is the depletion of petroleum reserves, with commercialized technology for
alternative energy sources unable to bridge the gap in time. The severity of
this depletion issue stems from several underlying factors:
1.
Over a decade ago, the
petroleum industry’s capacity planning failed to anticipate the rise of two
major industrial powers: China and India, leading to a significant imbalance on
the demand side.
2.
Globally, no new oil
fields (excluding small-scale wells that do not reach economic scale) have been
successfully exploited in nearly three years, reflecting an imbalance on the
supply side.
3.
Saudi Arabia, the
world's largest oil producer, has overstated its oil reserves. The average
water cut rate of crude oil in its wells exceeds 25%, but this has been
concealed and unreported.
4.
Iraq, the second-largest
oil producer, destroyed more than 200 oil fields during the Iraq War.
5.
Consequently, the
estimated usable years of petroleum reserves have been significantly reduced by
over a decade from the original estimate of more than 30 years. Many countries
have struggled to adapt their energy policies in time, while commercializing alternative
energy sources to replace petrochemical industries may encounter a gap. This
forms the backdrop of the current oil crisis.
6.
High oil prices are a
“consequence,” representing a secondary issue, while oil depletion is the
“cause,” representing the primary issue.
If environmental protection is a topic for the sustainable survival of
humanity, then oil depletion is an immediate crisis affecting human survival,
warranting greater urgency than environmental issues like greenhouse gas and
harmful gas reductions. When considering the impact and urgency of resource
depletion and the greenhouse effect together, the prioritization of energy
issues for powered vehicle use should be set as follows for a more appropriate
response:
1. Replacing gasoline with compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel:
a.
The current global reserve of natural gas is estimated to last over a century.
b.
Converting powered vehicles from gasoline to natural gas presents no technical
barriers, only a conversion cost of tens of thousands of NT dollars per
vehicle.
c.
Establishing a widespread network of gas stations is challenging. The
government should consider promoting natural gas fuel use exclusively for
public buses and taxis.
d.
The CO₂ produced by burning natural gas is similar to that of gasoline,
offering no advantage in reducing the greenhouse effect.
e.
CNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are entirely different; LPG is a
byproduct of oil refining, heavier than air, and its promotion as a vehicle
fuel offers little in reducing dependence on petroleum energy.
2.
Replacing gasoline with
diesel:
a.
Diesel enables vehicles to travel approximately 20% farther per unit volume
compared to gasoline, indirectly reducing national petroleum consumption.
b.
Diesel is cheaper per unit than gasoline, providing an incentive for users and
supporting policy implementation.
c.
Diesel combustion emits less CO₂ per unit than gasoline.
d.
Adjusting the refining process to increase diesel production and decrease
gasoline production reduces CO₂ emissions at the production stage.
e.
The government should actively encourage the replacement of gasoline vehicles
with diesel vehicles.
f.
The main obstacle is that CPC Corporation and Formosa Plastics can only supply
low-sulfur diesel with a sulfur content of 50 ppm. New-generation diesel
engines with specific catalytic converters can meet the strictest emission
standards but require low-sulfur diesel with 30 ppm or less.
g.
A secondary obstacle is political: to protect the domestic auto assembly
industry and maintain relations with Japan, the government has adopted a
passive stance on the import of diesel vehicles, mainly from European
manufacturers.
3. Hybrid Vehicles:
a.
There are two key technologies in hybrids. The first is the switching between
different power sources. The most advanced in hybrid technology, the Toyota
Prius, achieves power switching between gas and electric in 500 milliseconds,
while the Ford Escape, based on an improved first-generation Prius system,
claims 400 milliseconds—both meeting strict consumer demands for "mature
commercialization." However, other manufacturers, including Taiwan’s
Industrial Technology Research Institute, are still working to overcome
technical challenges. This switching system also faces significant cost
barriers.
b.
The second key is battery efficiency. As with the switching technology,
technical barriers have been largely overcome, but cost remains a hurdle. For
example, the Prius, sold for USD 21,000 in the U.S. (about NT$600,000),
includes a nickel-metal hydride battery that costs around NT$200,000,
accounting for over 30% of the vehicle price. Hybrid vehicles use a precise
micro-current control system to address the approximately 7% memory fade of
nickel-metal hydride batteries, but there is still no reliable data on their
durability beyond ten years in harsh road environments. Additionally, the
after-sales costs for these expensive batteries and the potential for secondary
pollution from disposal are still unknown.
c.
Thus, strong policies for natural gas and diesel provide a crucial buffer time
for hybrid manufacturers to reduce the costs of key components and control
product quality risks, resulting in greater synergy for Taiwan.
d.
Beyond low fuel consumption and reduced emissions, the key value of hybrid
technology lies in its expansive potential. While gasoline/electric is the most
common, hybrids can also be adapted to diesel/electric, natural gas/electric,
hydrogen internal combustion/electric, and other combinations.
e.
Currently, with the import and excise taxes applied to hybrids, their market
price is about NT$1.5 million, placing them in the luxury vehicle segment,
resulting in limited market penetration and only minor contributions to
national energy conservation and pollution reduction.
f.
Toyota and Honda, the international leaders in hybrid technology, are open to
licensing their hybrid technology due to the high development costs but
relatively low sales volume. The Taiwanese government could consider
encouraging local assembly and production of hybrid and ultra-low-emission
vehicles with support measures like tax incentives and technology transfer to
the Industrial Technology Research Institute. This could reduce the price of
hybrid vehicles to below NT$1 million, increase market accessibility, and drive
technological advancement in Taiwan’s key industries.
4. Biomass Fuel:
a.
Fuels such as methanol or biodiesel (bio-diesel) can be produced from renewable
crops like corn and soybeans to replace fossil fuels.
b.
From raw material production to refining and transport, these biomass fuels can
theoretically be tightly controlled by human technology (e.g., genetic
modification), allowing for high purification levels and significant reduction
of pollutants generated during combustion.
c.
However, biomass fuel production and refining consume substantial energy,
creating another environmental issue related to resource waste.
5. Deep-Sea Methane:
a.
It is known that rich methane reserves exist at the bottom of various deep-sea
trenches or sea beds. Energy experts suggest that, just as oil replaced whale
oil fifty years ago, deep-sea methane could replace depleting oil supplies and
become the next star in the energy sector.
b.
Switching powered vehicles from petroleum to methane presents no technical
challenges, only a cost barrier for conversion.
c.
Current industrial technology and equipment cannot yet overcome key issues such
as deep-sea high pressure and strong ocean currents. No energy companies have
provided an estimated timeline for commercial extraction.
d.
The government could consider partnering with international energy companies
and investing in basic research on deep-sea extraction technology to gain
control over this energy source and its key technologies.
e.
Taiwan’s western waters consist of a continental shelf, while the eastern side
faces the deep-sea Pacific. Taiwan should assert its rights to a
200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone under international law and customary
practices to secure jurisdiction and usage rights over deep-sea resources. This
could position Taiwan to transition from an energy importer to an energy
exporter in the future.
6.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles:
a.
Hydrogen, an almost zero-pollution energy source, requires extensive national
infrastructure investment for production, transportation, storage, and retail.
These transformations may take decades, making it essential to extend the
lifespan of petroleum and other energies.
b.
Currently, the energy consumed in hydrogen production roughly equals the
electric energy that hydrogen can generate. When accounting for storage and
transportation costs, significant resource waste is involved. Thus, low-energy
hydrogen production is key to popularizing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
c.
Thanks to alloy hydrogen storage technology, hydrogen storage and
transportation are now safe. The chemical reactions involved in storing and
releasing hydrogen in alloys are temperature-dependent, meaning that if an
alloy storage tank is damaged, higher temperatures result in less hydrogen
release, preventing ongoing combustion. This removes the explosion risk
associated with traditional high-pressure hydrogen tanks. Furthermore, alloy
hydrogen storage technology has seen considerable cost improvements recently,
making storage and transport feasible.
7.
Pure-Electric Vehicles:
a.
If hydrogen fuel cell technology continues to advance faster than battery
technology, the urgency for developing fully electric vehicles may decrease.
b.
The advantage of fully electric vehicles lies in zero emissions for end-users,
surpassing the ultra-low emissions of hydrogen fuel cells, which still emit
water and waste heat. Additionally, fully electric vehicles could eventually
replace gas and refueling stations, theoretically improving urban landscapes
and public safety.
c.
Fully electric vehicles simplify and revolutionize vehicle transmission,
suspension, and steering systems, fundamentally transforming the vehicle
industry.
d.
Due to unresolved technical challenges, fully electric vehicles are currently
more suitable for academic research rather than public policy discussions.
In
summary, this article aims to provide insight into the current and future
landscape of energy, environmental, and technological advancements in the
vehicle industry. Conveying accurate, comprehensive information to legislative
and administrative bodies can greatly benefit policy formulation and
implementation, serving the best interests of the powered vehicle industry.
《Also Published in TVVMA Monthly, Issue No. 144. 》
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